A few hundred votes in County Cheshire threaten what should have been a Labour safe seat. But welcome to the new normal, a political era where the most popular party in the country is polling on just 25 per cent of the vote.
Runcorn and Helsby is two thirds Runcorn (an industrial town with a cargo port) and one third Helsby, a collection of well-to-do small parish villages with experimental pub lunches (recommendations available on request). These parts couldn’t be further from each other in need, and consequently, vote.
Modelling suggested Runcorn proper was heading Reform’s way long before this contest was called. Votes in by-elections in St Helens and Tameside and in south Wales suggest the radical right would out perform expectations in the built-up areas of red-brick Britain.
I live a twenty minute walk from Runcorn and Helsby’s edge. In the wealthy areas they vote Conservative in council contests, sometimes Labour. In general elections they err Labour. Here, Labour is hoping Tory votes will shift leftward to keep Reform at bay. The hope behind this – shall we call it a Stop Farage campaign – is that Tories prefer Labour to Reform, and are willing to vote tactically.
It’s a risky assumption. Nationally, Tory voters in Labour vs Reform fights tend to lean Reform. But when you control for affluence it isn’t so simple. Rich Conservative voters are more split on the question. I hear of former Conservative councillors in the locale conceding that they will vote Labour for the first time. It makes sense for Labour to give the strategy a go.
But it speaks to the desperation of it all. Talk to both Labour and Reform figures on the ground about the horse race nature of this fight and they speak in unison. They don’t know what to predict. And they’re nervous.
“I don’t understand what Labour is up to,” one Reform insider tells me. “They must have private polling which doesn’t look good.” Meanwhile, Labour activists report encountering fewer Reform voters on the doorstep than they expected. More apathetics than out-and-out Faragistas.
Reform is banking on voters with an unreliable history of voting. The polls put them on top right now, in part because some traditional voters will stay home (Labour looks like “more of the same” than “a real change” as More in Common polling finds); and in part because traditional non-voters are psyched up by Farage. The problem for the conventional parties is these new non-voters lean Reform. On the voter sheets they are often written off as not voting.
This polling is backed up in part by council by-elections. But in a high risk game of constituency contest, it’s a reliance on the unreliable. It’s a weaker hand. Which brings us to the Britain Predicts model. With one week to go, what are we saying?
Two things to consider: turnout and vote share.
First, turnout.
According to my model, votes tallied on Thursday 1 May will likely range from 23,000 to 29,000. This is turnout of 55-68 per cent. This isn’t out there for a parliamentary by-election. In fact, it’s typical for a competitive contest.
The modelling suggests most of the variation will come from Runcorn-proper. Reform’s reliance on voters with an unreliable record of voting is where the uncertainty lies here. Turn them out, and they’ve cinched the seat. Fail, and Labour hangs on.
And now for the vote.
Previously, the model gave the seat to Labour by 33 per cent to 30 per cent, without factoring for tactical voting. Now the tactical voting feature has been applied, and the numbers are as follows: Labour 36 per cent. Reform 35 per cent. Conservative 11 per cent. Green 9 per cent.
The model’s central estimate anticipates 25,853 votes to be cast. (Academic I grant you, but worth knowing.) Of those, 9,321 would vote Labour, 8,986 would vote Reform.
There is a reasonable range of share, too: Labour should expect to pull in between 32.6 and 39.5 per cent of the vote; whereas Reform is on course to win between 31.7 and 40.1 per cent of the vote. The greater range for Reform can primarily be attributed to, as I said earlier, a reliance on the unreliable.
But the central estimate from Britain Predicts is this: a gasping lead for Labour in one of its safer seats in the country. The party has nothing to be happy about that. But it’s all far from guarantee. I wouldn’t put money on it.
[See more: Does Labour have a “forgotten flank”?]
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