The Labour Party has selected Sagal Abdi-Wali as its candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The news will unlikely have come as a surprise to Labour insiders. Abdi-Wali, who has been the leader of Camden Council since May, was the clear favourite to win. Less than an hour after her selection was announced, Labour campaigners were already handing out campaign leaflets with her photo attached and a slogan saying “For Hope Vote Sagal”.
This by-election was triggered after Keir Starmer resigned the seat on 1 September, parliament’s first day back after the summer recess. This race is Labour’s to lose – Holborn and St Pancras has been a stronghold for the party since the 1980s. Starmer won it in 2024 with a majority of 11,572.
There has been some suggestion that Abdi-Wali was Starmer’s chosen successor. She is seen as being close to the former prime minister and has worked with him in the constituency in her role as a Camden councillor and, more recently, as leader. In an interview with the Camden New Journal shortly after she was elected in May, Abdi-Wali said she had been inspired by the Starmer and that she felt he deserved more time as prime minister. It is not unusual for former leaders to have an influence over their constituency successors. When Tony Blair resigned as the MP for Sedgefield in 2007, his former aide Phil Wilson, was selected as the Labour candidate to replace him and went on to win the seat.
This is a significant by-election for Labour. It is Andy Burnham’s first electoral test as Prime Minister and a chance to test whether Labour’s shift leftwards under his leadership is able to cut into the Green vote. Labour insiders hope to retain the seat. “Our message of hope is really cutting through,” a senior Labour source said, “Labour is the only party that can – and is – delivering the real change that people want to see”.
The Green Party intends to throw everything at taking the seat. The party’s leader, Zack Polanski, has put himself forward for selection – members of the Camden Green Party will decide between him and another candidate, councillor Hamza Chowdhury, at an online selection meeting tonight (10 September). Green Party insiders expect Polanski to win.
In her bid for selection, Abdi-Wali presented herself as Labour’s best choice to take on the Greens. Members queuing for the selection meeting at St Pancras church were handed leaflets which posed her as “the most experienced candidate to take the fight to Zack”. Labour more widely hopes to take the Greens head on. From Saturday, the party is planning a weekend of campaigning dubbed “Make Hope Win” – a not-so-subtly similar message to Polanski’s own campaign to “Make Hope Normal Again” earlier this year. Labour insiders also view the government’s announcement of sanctions on illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank earlier this week as also going some way to win back voters on the left.
Abdi-Wali has also already faced attacks from the politicians on the right. In a post on X ahead of her selection, Zia Yusuf, Reform’s home affairs spokesperson, suggested she wasn’t British. Jonathan Reynolds described Yusuf’s comments as “straightforward racism”. It has been implied that his post only reinforced the likelihood of Abdi-Wali’s selection, with Labour members viewing her potential victory in Holborn and St Pancras as a brilliant response to his attacks.
Labour’s campaign can now begin in earnest. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband tentatively kicked off proceedings last weekend and Bridget Philipson spent Tuesday on the campaign. Other cabinet members are expected to make appearances in Holborn and St Pancras in the coming weeks. Voters will head to the polls on 8 October, just over four weeks away.
[Further reading: Kemi Badenoch shows weakness on the radio]
Content from our partners
Related
Join the debate
Subscribe here to comment