Ed Davey asks Lib Dems to keep the faith

Under his leadership, MPs don’t seem to know what it’s all for

Is Ed Davey’s leadership in trouble? At this week’s Liberal Democrat conference, that was the question on everybody’s lips, from aides and MPs to activists, as they approached me in the bar or the conference centre. But most of them swiftly followed that question with a simple answer: no.

So what is going on? Mid-way through this parliamentary term, with populists to the right and left of them, Liberal Democrats find themselves stuck, if not in the middle, then somewhere towards the bottom of the polls, sometimes even in fifth place, with a poll rating averaging 10 or 11 per cent. They are struggling to cut through, to put across the values they see coming under threat, and some are beginning to talk of change.

Davey and his allies make a distinction between leadership angst, and strategy angst. They insist that by the former measure, Davey is completely safe – and most of the MPs I spoke to this week agree. What they do acknowledge, however, is that the strategy Davey has pursued since becoming leader in 2019 is coming under internal pressure like never before.

Davey is well aware that, as he and his allies would put it, he has colleagues who would like to operate more like a left-wing pressure group, Green-party style. “We could do that,” one close ally says. “We could adopt a strategy to reach 20, 22 per cent in the polls. We have done that before. We did it in 2019 under Jo Swinson, who, incidentally, was less popular than Ed is. But we don’t know where those voters are. And what happens when you get to the election is those voters go back to where they came from and you lose seats.”

Instead of the sugar rush of going for temporary poll bounces, Davey has a “seat-first, not vote-first, strategy”. This is founded on building a strong local presence, typically from councils up, and targeting resources and energy at the seats the party can win. This was the strategy that saw the party grow from 11 MPs in 2019 to 72 after the 2024 general election, and it has seen the party make gains in eight consecutive sets of local council elections. So, in this approach, there can be quite unimpressive poll numbers. But seat by seat, Davey’s track record shows that it can produce sustainable gains. Many of the party’s MPs are fully behind both it, and him.

So maybe Davey’s strategy is going to plan. His problem, however, is that even if his strategy works in the end, it is making plenty other of his MPs miserable in the meantime. To quote one, speaking candidly: “If I ask, ‘But what would you like me to do?’ I’m told to go back to my constituency, send out more leaflets, knock on more doors, and above all hold on to my seat. But ask Ed what he wants to do now, with the 72 MPs he currently has in parliament, he doesn’t know.”

In Brighton, I encountered some MPs who – in their frank moments – are feeling privately despondent. “It feels meaningless,” one said. “Many of us left interesting, high-powered careers to be here. We’ve made sacrifices.” They look around at the increasingly polarised political situation, speak of the values they were elected on, and want to do more. “But it’s all just about the numbers and growing at the next election. What about now?” Under Davey’s leadership, they don’t seem to know what it’s all for.

Even senior party figures acknowledge they have experienced “growing pains” in the transition from 11 MPs to 72, particularly this year. Two senior staff members have departed in recent months (one Lib Dem MP describes them both as “toxic” in their treatment of colleagues) and new blood has been brought in, including a new political director in James Holt, who used to work for Harry and Meghan at their Archewell Foundation in the States. He is working on branding and helping the party with its image, which could yet go some way to soothe the continued growing pains.

The irony is that Davey shares the same values and fears that are motivating the discontent in his party. He is just as worried by the rise of Reform and the state of politics as his internal critics – in fact, it is presicely because of that fear that he is cleaving to his strategy so closely. The cost of going backwards is much higher when Nigel Farage is the potential prime minister: a genuine risk, as he sees it, if Liberal Democrats cede seats to the Conservatives, who they reckon are likely to enter government as junior partners with Reform if given the opportunity. “He feels a moral responsibility to stick to this approach and prevent that,” a close ally says.

And as part of that strategy, Davey is targeting former Conservatives. There is a particular type of David Cameron-supporting, Remain-voting Tory, who may have voted for Rishi Sunak at the last election, who Davey believes is ripe for the taking as Kemi Badenoch lurches to the right on human rights and climate. The Tories still have further to fall, in Davey’s calculations.

As the party leaves the south coast, Davey’s position seems relatively secure for now. But the niggles don’t seem to going away either. One unhappy Lib Dem MP says all of their local activists have tired of Davey’s leadership and are pushing for a change. Where they will be in a year’s time is unclear. But for now, Davey is asking his party to keep the faith.

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