This week marked ten years since the Brexit vote. Today, voters largely agree the decision to leave was the wrong one. A tenth of Reform voters, even, take that view.
But the mandate to rejoin has been in majority territory since we left. It’s at 55 per cent right now. Why has nothing changed? Mostly because our regret is a surface level sentiment. Doubts arise as you dig deeper. If you prompt respondents with the likely messages of a campaign, they become less sure. That 55 per cent supporting rejoin drops to 50 per cent supporting a single market or a customs union. Support only rises when the terms get vaguer; “closer relationship without rejoining the EU, single market or customs union” attracts 59 per cent support.
The opt outs Britain enjoyed before it left remain important to the electorate. Rejoin support collapses without them. Rejoining on the conditions of single currency and Schengen membership loses more than a third of rejoin supporters.
Closer relations? Absolutely. Rejoin? Yes. Customs union? Maybe. Single Market? Maybe. Fully integrated EU membership? Not so fast.
Attitudes to European immigration have changed significantly, which is remarkable, given that immigration was so central an issue in the leave campaign. Today, only 41 per cent of Brits think EU membership would increase immigration, and 27 per cent think it would make no real difference. In fact, 8 per cent think EU membership would result in lower immigration. In 2016, EU equalled immigration. In 2026 EU equals… what?
From somewhere within all of this uncertainty will emerge defining aspects of Britain’s future. Rejoin sometime soon, say most. Closer relationship yes, say even half of adamant Brexiteers. But not at any cost. Britain is picky. And so is the EU.
[Further reading: The northern conquest]
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Subscribe here to commentIsn’t this called “cakeism”?
“Today, only 41 per cent of Brits think EU membership would increase immigration, and 27 per cent think it would make no real difference. In fact, 8 per cent think EU membership would result in lower immigration.”
Some people have short memories. EU membership means that 450 million people have the right to move anywhere they want, while the citizens of that country can do nothing about it, with their votes at the ballot box debarred from having any influence. That is how several million people came here prior to 2020.