For a presidential term that will last seven years, the run-up to this election has felt twice as long. In Ireland, voters will head to the polls on Friday – lethargic, languid and ready to mark a box and be done with it. Realistically, their choices lie between Heather Humphreys and Catherine Connolly, though Jim Gavin’s name will also remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal from campaigning on October 6.
The last time Ireland had only three contenders was the 1990 presidential election. In the past two campaigns, it seemed as though RTÉ would need to build a mega-soundstage for their presidential debates just to accommodate all the groundhogs popping their heads up for a chance to wander Áras an Uachtaráin for seven years. In 2018, there were six. 2011 had seven.
To secure a place on the ballot paper, candidates first had to be nominated by one of the three political parties in the Oireachtas – Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, or Sinn Féin – that had the required 20 members to endorse them. Otherwise, candidates would have needed support from members of smaller parties, independents or surplus members of the three larger parties. This was the end of Conor McGregor’s cursory bid for nomination – after very few members of the Irish parliament, and no local authority, endorsed him.
There was speculation around other unlikely candidates: Sean Gallagher (a Dragon’s Den judge), Joe Duffy (a phone-in radio host for whiny callers), Michael Flatley (twinkle toes), Joanna Donnelly (a weather presenter), and Maria Steen (an anti-abortion, anti-same-sex marriage campaigner, who, at a press briefing about her failed presidential bid, brandished a Hermès bag worth between €10,000 and €40,000 “to expose the hypocrisy of the left, who don’t love the poor; they just hate the rich”). In a last-minute attempt to edge into headlines, Bob Geldof (Live Aid organiser and anti-nationalist) claimed he would have “walked it” and been “really good” in the position.
To settle the sawdust in this political circus, Met Éireann, the state meteorological service, announced it would not entertain the names of these prospective candidates for the 2025-26 storm season. They needn’t have worried – Storm Michael Flatley proved little more than a zephyr.
Whittled down to three by mid-September, Gavin, Humphreys and Connolly embodied three of Ireland’s four principal political factions. Fianna Fáil’s Gavin, a former Dublin Gaelic football manager, was nominated at the behest of party leader Micheál Martin. He characterises himself as a centrist, a “constitutional republican,” and, notably, not a career politician. Throughout the campaign, he disclosed scant detail regarding his political convictions, to the extent that many electorates appeared to forget he was even a contender. He withdrew from the campaign trail on October 6, following a report in the Irish Independent alleging that he owed €3,300 (£2,870) to a former tenant. He is presently polling at a mere 5 per cent.
Heather Humphreys, Fine Gael’s long-serving minister of Ulster Presbyterian heritage, has faced scrutiny for her childhood participation in Orange Order parades, which she discontinued during the Troubles. Now a self-described “proud Irish Republican”, Humphreys has sought to use her heritage to her advantage, arguing that, in the event of a future poll on Irish unity, she would be “well placed” to speak to those who identify as British. She has also sought to bid herself, somewhat relentlessly, as the “middle of the road” candidate. If this is the middle of the road, one might as well be navigating sleeper lines, for Humphreys has struggled to cultivate a compelling personal charisma over the past several months. “Common sense”, she assured, was what she had to offer. “I know the issues. I work in the Credit Union. I’m married to a farmer. I see the issues every day. I work and live in the real world, and I’m prepared to roll up my sleeves and get on with the job”. The nation shrugged. In debates, she has often appeared tentative, frequently stuttering, while her lack of fluency in Irish has proved a point of contention. She is presently polling at 20 per cent.
Catherine Connolly has been tasked with keeping this election cycle breathing. Built upon the broadest coalition of left-wing parties in the State’s history, Connolly represents the closest approximation to Michael D Higgins that the Irish left could hope to field. She is pro-neutrality, a fluent Irish speaker and has previously served as the Mayor of Galway and the Leas-Cheann Comhairle (the deputy chairperson of Dáil Éireann). Her campaign has centred on housing, social equality, environmental issues and Irish unity. Connolly has faced a number of pointed attacks during the campaign; she defended a 2018 visit to Syria, insisting she had not “uttered one word of support for Assad,” although Politico noted she refrained from criticising Assad during the visit and subsequently called for the lifting of sanctions on his regime. Connolly faced additional scrutiny over her previous employment of a woman with a firearms conviction, which she defended as consistent with principles of rehabilitation and social inclusion. She is polling at 38 per cent.
Yet there remains a segment of the Irish electorate who feel unrepresented by the left, the centre, and, well, the other centre. Last week, a campaign advocating the spoiling of ballots was launched. Its backers have included entrepreneur Declan Ganley, economist Eddie Hobbs and unsuccessful presidential contender Nick Delahanty. The campaign has also, notably, attracted the attention of the anti-immigrant online far right, who feel disillusioned by the political establishment and its perceived inaction on high levels of immigration. They may abstain from voting, but they did come out to riot on Tuesday at an asylum hotel in West Dublin, following the charging of a man in his twenties in connection with the sexual assault of a ten-year-old girl. As Finn McRedmond observed, “It is a minority position, but one that will keep searching for political expression it cannot find in the mainstream.” They now poll one percentage point higher than Jim Gavin, at 6 per cent.
Betting shops should not anticipate substantial payouts on Friday – the outcome is as predictable as sunrise. Connolly, one might surmise, already has her bag packed for an impending seven-year tenure at Áras an Uachtaráin. Her campaign has been executed with notable finesse, with the Irish Times observing her “deft use of digital media that has energised young supporters in a way not seen since the marriage-equality and abortion referendums.” Even the choice of campaign typography and design was striking, drawing inspiration from the vintage typefaces once used on sweet shops and corner stores across Ireland. Humphreys’, by contrast, evoked the branding of an overpriced soap. If the old Irish adage “mol an óige agus tiocfaidh sí” (praise the young and they will flourish) is any guide, Connolly has praised the youth, adopted their favourite font and flourished herself.
[Further reading: Ireland is just getting angrier]
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