Britain is a conservative country. That used to be the caricature. Voters regarded the prospect of too much change as a threat rather than a source of heady excitement. If it was ever the case – which I doubt – restive, angry, impatient voters are far from conservative now. This is a country where flamboyant insurgents can flourish and cautious technocrats seem out of place, as if strangers in their own land.
This is the case for next year’s election for the Scottish parliament. Already, there is speculation about which party or parties will rule when the campaign is over. Pollsters in Edinburgh tell me that at the moment the SNP is most likely to form the next government – another twist in these stormy times. If the pollsters are right, the SNP would have ruled Scotland for nearly a quarter of a century by the end of the next term.
The parties in Scotland are even more aware than their bewildered equivalents in Westminster that they must pitch themselves as insurgents. What makes the upcoming battle so compelling is that the three parties likely to shape the contest can all credibly claim to be change-makers, even as each suffers from the taint of the “establishment” or, worse, “England”.
For the SNP the contortion towards insurgency is a stretch. They have ruled Scotland for an eternity. How can they represent transformation? Yet they always have an answer to the change question. They want independence, the biggest leap of all. In next year’s election they are both the party of the dreaded status quo and an agent of revolution.
Not for the first time since John Swinney became leader, Nicola Sturgeon has attracted more publicity than him in recent days. Her memoir, Frankly, has received a mixed reception: JK Rowling posted a scathing critique on her website, while others hailed Sturgeon’s apparent self-lacerating candour. But more significant than any piece on the book is the scale of attention Sturgeon has got.
Sturgeon shows how the SNP became such a force. There was and is strong support for independence, but the route remains as blocked as ever. The flawed charisma of Alex Salmond and Sturgeon helped to make the dream seem achievable, as if historic liberation were just around the corner. In their different ways, both were political conjurors: look at the current gap between the relatively high support for independence and the SNP’s low poll ratings. Can Swinney attract more independent supporters without the guile of Salmond or the communication skills of Sturgeon in their prime? If not, the SNP will be judged more on its management of Scotland, where it has only disappointed voters. In which case the pollsters current view of the likely outcome will be wrong.
This is what Scottish Labour dares to hope will happen. Twelve months ago, the party was on a high. It had performed much better than the Labour Party elsewhere in the general election. Pollsters in Edinburgh were suggesting that Labour’s Scottish leader, Anas Sarwar, was almost certain to be the next first minister. Sarwar remains optimistic. Having never been in power, he can still claim to be a change-maker in waiting, who would lead a fresh administration, committed to the union and new approaches to policy delivery.
But Sarwar is burdened by a Labour government in Westminster that is unpopular in Scotland. He faces the challenge of devolution: to be different to Keir Starmer but able to work effectively with him. Westminster Labour rules already. Currently it is seen as part of the failed establishment. In contrast Scottish Labour has not had a whiff of power for years. Like the SNP, Scottish Labour represents both continuity and change. It needs to focus on its capacity to bring about sweeping and radical reform, distinct from the Westminster government, to stand a chance.
Then there is Reform, the wild card, the party that claims to be leading the so-called people’s revolt, two words that define insurgency. Reform secured 25.6 per cent of the vote in the Hamilton by-election earlier this summer, though Labour took the seat. Nigel Farage’s party has the great advantage of being uncontaminated by power in Scotland or Westminster. But it too faces big obstacles. There is no leader of a “Scottish Reform”, and little sign of any quality candidates queuing up to represent the party in the election.
The independence question differentiates the Scottish battle from any other. But other than this difference, there are echoes of the larger political environment. Only politicians perceived as radical flourish – the same reason why the Conservatives at Westminster are facing so many problems after 14 years in power. Starmer and his senior advisers almost recognise the mood. On the advice of his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, Starmer has spoken of the need for his government to be “insurgent incumbents”. But, in their hearts, Starmer and McSweeney are not yet committed to insurgency, but the duo better start to believe in the concept. Otherwise, more and more space will open for the many parties claiming to represent radical change: Reform, Jeremy Corbyn’s embryonic new party, the Greens, and the Liberal Democrats with their solid tally of seats at Westminster.
Scotland is used to multi-party politics, but this one may produce a result that leads to something more like paralysis. In a hung parliament, the SNP and Labour would not be able to form a partnership with Reform. The SNP has already fallen out with the Greens, its former partner in power. Labour would struggle to form a partnership with the Conservatives. In Westminster, ministers reflect often on how hard it is to govern in the current mood of disillusionment – Sturgeon’s book partly takes up the same theme. By next summer, leading in the Scottish parliament could become close to impossible. All the while, Starmer’s problems deepen at Westminster. Perhaps it is easier to lead a conservative country. In Scotland and elsewhere voters yearn to move on from the status quo and, equally important, seek much clearer definitions from the many parties about what form their various versions of “change” would take.
Steve Richards Presents Rock N Roll Politics at the Edinburgh Festival, a different show each day.
[See also: The lost art of political oratory]
Content from our partners
Related
Join the debate
Subscribe here to comment