There’s nothing that kicks Westminster back into action after recess like a new poll. No, not one forecasting the local elections taking place in just nine days’ time, but something looking a little further ahead, to the next general election. More In Common chose the Easter weekend to release a new MRP poll (that’s multilevel regression and poststratification – the technique that aims to make predictions on a seat-by-seat basis and has proved more accurate than other polling methods). The results will shock you… maybe.
More In Common puts three parties – Labour, the Conservatives and Reform – equal on vote share at 24 per cent. This is in line with what most polls this year have indicated: essentially a three-way tie, with Reform nudging ahead of the Tories and sometimes Labour by a few points. The shock factor is that, translated into seats in England, Scotland and Wales, the MRP model has Reform in first place with 180. Labour the Conservatives are tied on 165 each, with 67 going to the Liberal Democrats, 35 to the SNP, five to Plaid Cymru and four to the Greens – as well as ten independents (one taking Wes Streeting’s seat). Cue panic.
First, the obligatory disclaimer that any poll four years out from when an election might actually be held is of limited value. You could argue (especially if you’re a Labour MP) that there is little point whatsoever in speculating this much now, when all kinds of things – from decent economic growth and a restoration of public services through to global economic collapse, war, or another pandemic – could happen between now and polling day. Equally, knowing this is not about to stop the speculation. So let’s continue.
A big question with polls like this is how much voter behaviour could be driven by wanting to keep a particular party out. Tactical voting was the key story of the 2024 election, and is how Labour was able to win 63 per cent of seats with 34 per cent of the vote. So how likely is it that, in seats where Reform is tipped to have a fighting chance, supporters of other parties group together to keep them out?
According to Rob Ford, politics professor and political commentator (who catchily refers to models like this as “Chaotic Maps of Doom”), the answer is very. In a Bluesky thread casting a sceptical eye over the MRP poll, he suggests the “keep Reform out” incentive is being overlooked: that in Reform-Labour contests, for example, Reform’s lead would be squeezed by Green and Lib Dem voters. Individuals’ preferences for who they don’t want to win matter as much as who they do, Ford argues, and “any MRP conducted now cannot capture them because voters won’t start thinking tactically until election is close.”
That’s one view. But others are available. In this case, the counter-point to Ford was offered by Dylan Difford, a data journalist YouGov, who is sceptical about the impact tactical voting could have in 2029. Not because he doesn’t believe it will happen, but because, unlike in the 2024 election, its impact will no longer be asymmetric. “‘The spectre of Farage as PM will save us’ is overblown,” Difford argues, “purely because there are enough Tories sympathetic to Farage to largely nullify any LD/Grn tactical voting in Lab vs Reform contests.” In other words, we can and should take the MRP poll seriously, because while tactical voting will happen, the pro-Reform and anti-Reform trends will cancel each other out.
This is the essence of a debate we can expect to keep having for the next four years. But here are a couple of things to keep in mind. First, Reform is aware that, the bigger its profile grows, the most risk there is of a counter-movement. One Reform insider told me recently of the party’s strategy to make the Labour government (which, they hoped, would be obviously failing) the main dividing line at the next election, as Tory disaster was in 2024. “If Reform become the issue of the next election, rather than the incumbent government, all bets are off,” they admitted.
Second: where are the Conservatives in all this? Nearer the time, whoever is leader may have a big choice to make. Can the party survive if Reform overtakes them in parliamentary seats? Might there be some potential for informal cooperation with the Lib Dems or even Labour to keep Reform out? The kind of “national unity” pact seen in some European countries between the two main parties to lock out insurgents seems outlandish – not least given the present chatter about a Tory-Reform deal. But it’s hard to see how the Conservatives come back – ever – if they let Reform become the default party on the right.
Finally, the results of the model can be summed up in one word: chaos. Looking at More In Common’s map projection, there is no way to see a stable government being formed. A minority Reform government? A Labour-Tory grand coalition? A Reform-Conservative merger? It’s hard to imagine any of these lasting a month, let alone a parliament. While the MRP poll may have limited use predicting the result of the next election now, it does illuminate the perils of a two-party voting system in an electorate split three, four, five ways.
That doesn’t give MPs returning to Westminster today much to plan their strategies around. But this Chaotic Map of Doom gives them plenty to think about.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: Don’t blame the OBR for Britain’s economic woes]
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