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Yes, No… what do the latest polls suggest?

The No campaign still hold a 1-2 per cent lead after last's night Survation poll, but the SNP have built on this kind of momentum in the past.

By harry harry

You can read the full version of this piece on our new elections site, May2015.com.

The latest poll on Scottish independence is out. George Eaton has the details on the New Statesman, but the headline numbers put the No campaign fractionally in front, 53 to 47 per cent (excluding undecideds).

The poll will have quelled union fears, coming after YouGov put the Yes camp in front for the first time on Saturday. But should it? What do the polls suggest overall?

There is no one way of measuring them. Everything depends on how much weight you give the latest polls. This is how the race looked before yesterday’s result if you just consider polls from the past fortnight.  

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The graph uses all the individual polls to create a trend-line that shows the current state of the race. It suggests the campaigns are within a percentage point of each other. But yesterday’s poll has slightly widened the gap.

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This shows the unionists fractionally ahead by 1-2 per cent, which matches the average of the four most recent polls (by TNS, Panelbase, YouGov and now Survation). …

Continue to May2015.com to read the rest of this story.

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