Support 110 years of independent journalism.

Why the Yes campaign would win a second independence referendum

Better Together needs to win back under 40s and Labour supporters - many of whom seemed decided a month ago.

By harry harry

You can read the full version of this piece on our new elections site, May2015.com.

Scotland is slipping away. That is the finding of YouGov’s well-publicised poll this weekend, which put the Yes campaign in front for the first time.

That’s quite a reversal: just last month, the No campaign was ahead by 22 points. Back then, “Better Together” were winning in every age category. They had the support of around 60 per cent of 1624, 2539 and 4059-year-olds, and nearly 70 per cent of those older than 60.

As the New Statesmans political editor George Eaton noted on Sunday, they are now trailing in every group but the over-60s. Sixty per cent of those under 40 now intend to vote Yes to independence.

How has this happened so suddenly? The Yes campaign has won over a significant number of undecided voters, who are mainly younger, but this only explains some of the change. Only 9 per cent of voters were undecided a month ago.

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday - from the New Statesman. Sign up directly at saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. Sign up directly at morningcall.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

And separate polling published at that time by What Scotland Thinks, a polling aggregator, largely reinforces this: they suggest five out of six voters had already decided who to vote for. The Yes campaign has not just won over floating voters, but converted those who were seemingly decided a month ago.

Content from our partners
How to empower your employees to stay cyber secure
<strong>The energy sector reform the UK needs</strong>
Why we urgently need a social care workforce plan

The idea of a crumbling support base is daunting for the No campaign, but it should not be resigned. …

Continue to May2015.com