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Why the Yes campaign would win a second independence referendum

Better Together needs to win back under 40s and Labour supporters - many of whom seemed decided a month ago.

By harry harry

You can read the full version of this piece on our new elections site, May2015.com.

Scotland is slipping away. That is the finding of YouGov’s well-publicised poll this weekend, which put the Yes campaign in front for the first time.

That’s quite a reversal: just last month, the No campaign was ahead by 22 points. Back then, “Better Together” were winning in every age category. They had the support of around 60 per cent of 1624, 2539 and 4059-year-olds, and nearly 70 per cent of those older than 60.

As the New Statesmans political editor George Eaton noted on Sunday, they are now trailing in every group but the over-60s. Sixty per cent of those under 40 now intend to vote Yes to independence.

How has this happened so suddenly? The Yes campaign has won over a significant number of undecided voters, who are mainly younger, but this only explains some of the change. Only 9 per cent of voters were undecided a month ago.

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And separate polling published at that time by What Scotland Thinks, a polling aggregator, largely reinforces this: they suggest five out of six voters had already decided who to vote for. The Yes campaign has not just won over floating voters, but converted those who were seemingly decided a month ago.

The idea of a crumbling support base is daunting for the No campaign, but it should not be resigned. …

Continue to May2015.com

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