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10 April 2012

Can Ken recover?

Latest mayoral poll puts Boris six points ahead.

By George Eaton

The headlines only get worse for Ken Livingstone but the polls, at least, suggest he’s still in the race. A new ComRes poll for the Evening Standard puts Livingstone six points behind Boris Johnson in the second round, compared with last month’s YouGov poll which had Boris eight points ahead [although since the two firms employ different methodologies the polls should not be directly compared]. 

But with Labour nine points ahead nationally, it’s quite something that the Conservatives’ mayoral candidate is six points ahead in London, where Labour led the Tories even at the last election. Livingstone outpolled Labour in 2000, 2004 and 2008 but Labour now outpolls him. The poll shows that while 14 per cent of Londoners like Ken but not Labour, 17 per cent like Labour but not Ken. Boris, by contrast, is still favoured over his party. 28 per cent of voters like the mayor but not the Tories. 

The poll also suggests that Boris’s “doughnut strategy”, credited with delivering him victory in 2008, could win him another term in City Hall. Ken leads by 58 per cent to 38 per cent in inner London but Boris leads by 57 per cent to 39 per cent in outer London. 

If Ken is to recover, he needs to persuade Labour voters that they should support the Labour candidate. As Labour List’s Mark Ferguson argues, the focus in the final weeks should be on party, not personality. 

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