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13 April 2010

Tory lead cut to just 3 points in new poll

Cameron is still struggling to convince the electorate the Tories deserve to rule.

By George Eaton

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1271187444417

Latest poll (Times/Populus): Labour 25 seats short of a majority

The latest Populus poll for the Times has just been published and it’s not good news for David Cameron. Even though the Conservatives are widely believed to have won the first week of the campaign, the poll puts them just 3 points ahead of Labour.

The Tories are down 3 points to 36 per cent, with Labour up 1 to 33 per cent and the Lib Dems unchanged on 21 per cent. If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, the figures would leave Gordon Brown 25 seats short of an overall majority.

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The latest ICM and YouGov polls also show a drop in the Conservative lead, which suggests we’re witnessing another shift back towards Labour.

The Tories will no doubt hope to receive a bounce from their manifesto launch over the next few days, but it’s clear there’s still a lot of work to be done if they’re to win an overall majority. It’s now more important than ever for the Tories that Cameron comes out on top in the leaders’ debates.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

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Hung parliament, Conservatives 40 seats short.

Meanwhile, the latest Angus Reid survey for PoliticalBetting continues to show the Conservatives retaining a comfortable lead over Labour. It puts the Tories up 1 to 38 per cent, with Labour up 2 to 28 per cent and the Lib Dems unchanged on 22 per cent.

I’m also expecting new polls from ComRes and YouGov around 10pm.

UPDATE: A new ComRes poll for the Independent has the Conservative lead at 5. The Tories are up 1 to 36 per cent, with Labour up 2 to 31 per cent and the Lib Dems unchanged on 19 per cent.

The YouGov daily tracker shows the Tory lead rising 2 points to 8 per cent. The Tories are unchanged on 39 per cent, with Labour down 2 to 31 per cent and the Lib Dems unchanged on 20 per cent.

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