There are only 11 days to go in this, the most unpredictable of general election campaigns, and the key polling today still points to a tight, three-horse race.
Here are the figures from ComRes in the Independent on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror:
Con 34% (-1)
Lib Dem 29% (+2)
Lab 28% (+3)
Other 9% (-4)
(compared with most recent ComRes poll, published 21 April)
The Conservatives are still 55 short of a majority on electoralcalculus.co.uk:
SEATS:
Con 271
Lab 254
Lib Dem 93
Commentary from Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes:
– Overall it looks like the Lib Dems had a very modest boost from Thursday night although Gordon Brown’s performance has clearly boosted his party’s rating.
– Turnout looks set to be really quite high — 66 per cent say “absolutely certain” to vote, the highest registered of this campaign.
– The number of people who are “absolutely certain” to vote but who are undecided about who to vote for now stands at 3.3 million British adults. This compares with 2.5 million last week and five million the previous week, ie, pre-first debate.
– Lib Dem support is still strongest among the younger age groups — 41 per cent among 18-24s.
– Labour is ahead among C2s and DEs ,ie its core social groups, while 35 per cent of ABs say they’ll vote Lib Dem.
– The Lib Dem figures are particularly strong in the north of England. This is entirely consistent with our instant poll on Thursday evening.
I would add that although the Tories are consistently ahead at this stage, they should really be polling much better. It is worth repeating that Tony Blair’s Labour Party in opposition, in the run-up to the 1997 election, was rarely below 40 points, if ever, and frequently in the fifties.
Meanwhile, this question stands out, especially in advance of Thursday’s third and final debate, primarily on the economy:
Putting your party allegiance aside, who do you trust most to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn?
Gordon Brown & Alistair Darling 33% 28%
David Cameron & George Osborne 27% 26%
Nick Clegg & Vince Cable 13% 22%
Here, by the way, is the polling from the Sunday Times via YouGov.
* Conservatives 35%
* Labour 27%
* Liberal Democrats 28%
* Other 9%
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