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16 April 2010

Lib Dems overtake Labour in new poll

Support for Lib Dems surges eight points to 30 per cent, just three points behind the Tories.

By George Eaton

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1271454329782

Latest poll (YouGov/Sun) Labour 51 seats short of a majority.

The latest YouGov daily tracker poll has just been released and it shows a dramatic surge in support for the Lib Dems following last night’s debate.

The poll puts the Lib Dems up eight points to 30 per cent, with Labour in third place on 28 per cent and the Tories on 33 per cent, their lowest level of support since Brown’s honeymoon in September 2007.

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Yesterday’s YouGov poll put the Tories on 37 per cent and Labour on 31 per cent, so the increase in Lib Dem support has come at the expense of both parties.

The results should be treated with caution but this is clearly a sensational poll for the Lib Dems and a new layer of unpredictability has been added to the election. If the Lib Dems start to be seen as a potential party of government they could make a real electoral breakthrough.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1271454581671

Hung parliament, Conservatives 38 seats short.

But if repeated on a uniform swing, these figures would actually leave Labour as the largest single party in a hung parliament. The vagaries of the first-past-the-post system, mean that Gordon Brown would be 51 seats short of an overall majority.

According to UK Polling Report’s swing calculator, Labour would win 275 seats, the Tories 245 and the Lib Dems just 99.

 

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