Why does Alastair Campbell get so worked up by the national media? Why is Tony Blair still being so cautious? After all, the government is miles ahead in the polls. These questions have been raised often in recent weeks. There is one straightforward answer. Labour faces a round of extremely difficult local elections in May. Even on the basis of a modest performance, the Conservatives could gain more than a thousand seats. What is more, the Conservatives are performing better in council by-elections than their dismal poll ratings would suggest, especially in the Midlands and the south of England. Last month the party gained a seat in Gloucestershire from Labour and another from the Lib Dems in Epping Forest. There is a possibility that in May Labour will face a double squeeze, with the Lib Dems picking up seats in the north. Ashdown’s party gained seats in Northumberland and Barnsley in February. These result reflect a wider trend in by-elections over recent months. Turnout is extremely low and the performance of the Tories is poor for this stage of a parliament. Normally in mid-term the main opposition is making sweeping gains. Even so, new Labour will look a little less invincible by early June.
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