While the long-term implications are still very uncertain, there are some immediate positive and negative effects of the US military intervention in Venezuela. On the positive side, the swift and successful execution of this dangerous mission by American armed forces and intelligence agents strengthens US deterrence efforts in Venezuela and other parts of the world. The US also has removed a ruthless dictator from power, one it had charged with narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking offences.
On the negative side, the unilateral actions of the Trump administration are a gift to Russia and China, the two countries that will pose the greatest threat to American national security in the 21st century. The decision to go into Venezuela, without UN or Congressional approval, certainly makes it easier for Moscow to justify its actions in Ukraine (or Beijing, should it decide to invade Taiwan). Trump’s intervention will also fuel further polarisation in the United States, ultimately weakening its ability to defend its greater security abroad.
In acting alone, we have alienated our democratic allies and dealt another blow to the already beleaguered rules-based international system that has served us so well for the last 80 years. Finally, if Trump does not commit to restoring democracy in Venezuela – and so far he has demonstrated little interest in that project – this military operation will be remembered as just another 19th-century imperialist grab for oil, and that also does not serve America’s long-term interest.
[Further reading: America’s imperial fights are not necessarily ours]
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