How do you lead a revolution from six thousand miles away? Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, is probably the closest he has ever been to returning to the country he left over forty years ago. From his base in Washington DC, he is trying to coordinate the nationwide protest movement, calling on social media for his compatriots to flood the streets night after night. But reports suggest the revolt is slowing down. Signs from the White House that Donald Trump may not intervene have sapped its energy. The air of inevitability, which Pahlavi has tried to conjure for so many years, is yet again abating.
It was with a determination to restore that momentum that Pahlavi walked into Washington’s National Press Club on Friday. “The Islamic Republic will fall, not if, but when,” he declared at a press conference. The theory is that so long as the underlying causes of the protests remain – most immediately, the collapse of the Rial – so will the hanker for revolution. “The momentum hasn’t gone because the economic reality hasn’t changed,” one member of his team told me.
Pahlavi wanted to reassure Iranians and the administration that he had a team and a plan for the country once the theocracy fell. That plan is for him to lead a transitional government that would facilitate a constitutional convention to decide whether Iran would become a constitutional monarchy or a republic. He said he and his allies believed in the following principles: maintaining Iran’s territorial integrity; the separation of religion and state; liberty and equality for all citizens; and the people’s right to have a democratic form of government.
If the people chose a republic, then that leaves little need for a Crown Prince. But during the interim period Pahlavi’s pitch is that he is the only one with the authority to keep the lights on and prevent a descent into anarchy. Pahlavi’s relevance is a function of his influence over the protesters, and many have responded to his calls to enter the streets. He claims to be “uniquely positioned to ensure a stable transition”.
Just as we saw in Venezuela, where the United States left Maduro’s government in place, Pahlavi is eager to learn the lessons of the 2000s. He spoke directly to members of the security services during his speech in order to tell them that they would keep their jobs so that Iran could avoid the destructive effects of Iraq’s de-Baathification, when Saddam’s army and police were disbanded, leading to a power vacuum and chaos. “Large sections of the army and security forces have already refused to participate in the killing of civilians – they have whispered their loyalty to me,” he said.
We do not know whether that is true. For many years only arch monarchists were interested in Pahlavi. The question whether he wants to take Iran back to the absolute monarchy of the 1970s has always dogged him. Pahlavi’s entire existence has always turned on the question of legitimacy. Would a revolution that relied on American or Israeli airstrikes be legitimate? Has he ever been the rightful leader of Iran?
Before he spoke, videos of protesters shouting, “long live the Shah”, spliced with shots of corpses lying in morgues, were projected onto a screen. Pahlavi claims that the “bond between me and the Iranian people is not new. It’s been with me since birth, and it cannot be broken, even in exile.” Some think that this very bond is the problem. Pahlavi’s father, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, relied on ferocious secret police to stay in power. Sky News’s James Matthews asked Pahlavi what he would say to those Iranians who were concerned that by supporting him they would be swapping one dictator for another.
“First of all, I let historians write history. I’m here to make history,” Pahlavi replied. “Second, you hear the Iranian people standing behind me and calling my name – this doesn’t occur incidentally. They have known my track record. They know my unwavering commitment to democracy and human rights.”
There’s a long way to go before anyone might be able to hold him to his promise to take power and then relinquish it. For now the regime is still in control. And Pahlavi is still looking to the White House.
[Further reading: Iranians want their Shah back]
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