Ten months into Donald Trump’s second presidency, and almost four years into Russia’s latest war against Ukraine, there is a tragic circularity to the US president’s fitful efforts to bring the conflict to an end.
He resumed office in January brimming with wildly misplaced confidence in his singular ability to deliver peace. Then, he grew frustrated with what he viewed as Kyiv’s intransigence, berating Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office as he insisted that he didn’t “have the cards”.
But then, after a frantic diplomatic charm offensive by Ukraine and its European allies (and an agreement to hand over the rights to large reserves of Ukrainian minerals), accompanied by the incessant Russian bombardment of Ukrainian towns and cities, Trump began to wonder if, in fact, if might be Vladimir Putin who was to blame. He alternated between threatening and cajoling the Russian president, even laying on a red-carpet welcome for him in Alaska, to no apparent avail.
Now, once again, we are told that Trump is newly optimistic about the prospects for ending the war. He has reportedly signed off on a new 28-point peace plan, which, according to Politico, could be agreed by the end of this month. Perhaps even the end of this week. The only minor wrinkle is that the plan appears to have been negotiated between the US and Russia, with no meaningful input from Ukraine, or Europe. One source told the Financial Times that the resulting document was “very comfortable for Putin”, which does not sound encouraging for Kyiv. Indeed, if the details that have surfaced in recent days are correct, then Zelensky is likely to consider the American proposal less a realistic path to peace, more a formal invitation to capitulate.
As with earlier iterations of the Kremlin’s demands during this war, the new plan apparently calls for Kyiv to surrender the entirety of the Donbas – comprising the Donetsk and Luhansk regions – even though Ukraine still controls almost 15 per cent of Donetsk. The only concession is that Russia would commit to preserve that territory as a demilitarised zone, although how this would be enforced is not clear. The US would then recognise Crimea and the Donbas as lawful Russian territory.
In addition, Ukraine would be required to reduce the size of its current armed forces, give up certain types of long-range weaponry, and commit to making Russian an official language. No foreign troops would be permitted on Ukrainian soil, ruling out European proposals for a multinational “reassurance” force to monitor the terms of any ceasefire and dissuade Russia from resuming the conflict after an agreed truce. Axios reported on 19 November that the US would offer Ukraine “security guarantees” against a renewed assault as part of the plan, but there were no details as to what this would entail. Trump has previously ruled out committing the US military to defend Ukraine.
Zelensky has firmly rejected similar proposals in the past, and he is likely to do so again now. But the difference this time is that the Ukrainian leader is currently engulfed in the most serious political crisis of his presidency, following a high-level corruption scandal that has implicated his personal friends and political allies, enraged the wider public, and reignited Ukraine’s domestic political infighting. Prominent rivals, such as former president Petro Poroshenko, who Zelensky defeated in a landslide in 2019, are said to be attempting to orchestrate a no confidence vote against Zelensky’s cabinet. Even members of the president’s own “Servant of the People” party (named after his earlier satirical political comedy show) are now demanding the resignation of his notoriously powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.
Zelensky’s earlier efforts to curtail the powers of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies provoked large-scale street protests this summer, despite the danger from Russian bombing raids, forcing the president to retreat. He had claimed at the time that the measures were necessary because those organisations had been infiltrated by Russian agents. But the eruption of the subsequent scandal involving Zelensky’s former business partner, Timur Mindich, who fled Ukraine hours before investigators raided his home, and the energy and justice ministers, Svitlana Hrynchuk and Herman Halushchenko, who have both submitted their resignation, has raised doubts about his real motives. (Zelensky has not personally been accused of any wrongdoing.)
Compounding the president’s political crisis, the Ukrainian military, which is struggling for manpower as another winter sets in, is under renewed pressure along critical parts of the eastern frontline. Russian forces have begun entering the key strategic city of Pokrovsk (from where the New Statesman reported in 2023), where they appear to be approaching a breakthrough after months of gruelling combat. Such a defeat will only add to Trump’s scepticism that Ukraine still has a realistic chance of holding back the Russian assault and bolster his apparent conviction that Putin holds the winning cards.
So, once again, we have arrived at the point in this apparently endless cycle where Trump believes that the fastest route to ending this war is to apply pressure to Ukraine. And the Ukrainian leadership must choose between the risk of angering Trump and accepting terms that would require handing over a significant part of the country to Russia – along with the homes and futures of the many Ukrainians who still live there – without robust security guarantees to prevent Putin from attacking again.
Ironically, while Trump and Putin may perceive this as a moment of weakness for Zelensky, and therefore believe they can pressure him into concessions, the political crisis now swirling around the Ukrainian president might well make him even less likely to contemplate such a deal. It is bad enough that the man who came to power promising to root out corruption is now embroiled in a corruption scandal that has implicated some of his closest allies. He does not also want to be remembered as the leader who capitulated and lost this war, ceding Ukraine’s sovereignty to Russia.
If the past is prologue, expect Zelensky to reject the latest deal as diplomatically as possible, Ukraine to fight on and the cycle to continue. Until perhaps, eventually, Trump comes to realise that the leader who is in a real position to end this war – and on whom he should be focusing his pressure – is Putin.
[Further reading: General Valerii Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine’s path to victory]
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