In 2023, there were plenty of commentators suggesting that Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives could pull things back from the brink and deny Labour a majority at the next election. It wasn’t to be. And the fundamentals at the time gave no indication that it was remotely possible. You never heard that from me, by the way. Until now, because I am about to make this case for the Canadian Liberals. They might just be able to claw things back.
At the beginning of the year, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals were polling 20 per cent of the vote, down 13 points from the last election. If that comes to pass, it will result in the most serious fall from grace since the Eighties. The Conservatives, meanwhile, were polling 44 percent, up 10 points. The more-liberal-than-the-Liberals New Democrats were on 19 per cent, and the “Scot Nats of North America”, the Bloc Québécois, were on 9 per cent.
But the election of Trump has changed the calculus. Canadians are digging into their, er, Canadian-ness again – unusual for a Western nation hooked on hyper-globalisation. Accordingly, pollsters have found more and more voters put faith in a unifying Canadian identity. In January, that slightly ineffable “faith” was at 70 per cent; now it’s at 80 per cent.
This “rally around the flag” effect is abnormal. It’s usually reserved for national crises and wars. Maybe that’s how Canadians feel about Trump. He functions as a voter issue in his own right, second only to the cost of living, according to pollster Nanos.
Let’s take a closer look. The Conservative lead over the Liberals was 24 points at the start of the year. Following Trump’s inauguration and Trudeau’s resignation announcement, that lead has narrowed considerably. By mid-February, it was down to 17 points, now it’s down to nine. Trudeau’s own numbers have also improved substantially. Four weeks ago, 14 per cent wanted him as Prime Minister. Now it’s 25 per cent – the highest in the last 12 months.
We’re also seeing a lot of poll “noise”. Current figures range from a Conservative lead of 12 points to a shock Liberal lead of two points. That’s the difference between a Tory landslide and a very hung parliament.
CBC’s own model illustrates this well. Two weeks ago, the Tories had an eight in ten chance of winning the next election outright – that’s down from a ten in ten chance a few months ago. Now, it’s five in ten.
And Trudeau’s own seat is no longer in doubt. I know what you are thinking: this rally-around-the-flag effect is temporary. It doesn’t alter the fundamentals. Canadians want change…
And you’re probably right. According to Abacus, the Tory leader, Pierre Poilievre – who isn’t exactly popular – has a 16-point advantage over Trudeau in likeability. Sounds a lot like Starmer.
But Poilievre’s problem is that Trudeau won’t be prime minister in a month. After ten years of fostering dislike and distrust among the Canadian electorate, Trudeau is leaving – and Poilievre will no longer have the luxury of a more-hated opponent. Which brings us to Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of England and, it seems, Trudeau's likely successor.
The leadership convention takes place tomorrow. Carney’s platform of middle class tax cuts and cutting red tape – reminiscent of the so-called “compassionate Conservatism” of David Cameron – speaks to what the Canadian electorate wants right now. It’s also notably similar to Poilievre’s general vibe.
The Liberal collapse, arithmetically, is the result of voter leakage to the New Democrats and the Conservatives. So, it’s not a bad strategy for Liberals to elect a leader who sounds like a Conservative and offers a lot of Conservative voters exactly what they want.
One hypothetical poll suggests Carney will be a game-changer. This Léger survey (caveat: they tend to show better scores for the Liberals than other pollsters) finds the Conservatives neck and neck with the Liberals if Carney becomes the new leader.
Pallas finds the same: a six-point Tory lead today, but a dead heat if Carney takes over.
Hypothetical polling is imprecise and often overstated, but it can illustrate the direction of travel. To voters, Carney is new and enticing – he currently can be everything to everyone. Then he will do something, it could be anything, and some of these Carney-enthusiasts will turn away. Until then, the “Carney effect” is artificially and temporarily boosting Liberal party poll ratings.
But for Canada, the fundamentals have changed. And that is all to do with Trump. The Tories still have the advantage. But the American President might just be what keeps the Liberals competitive.
[See more: Trump’s soft power grab]
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