The last Conservative government often gave the impression of being no one’s friend. Even after Brexit, Europe was treated as a foe rather than as an ally. Joe Biden was routinely accused of being anti-British (in part owing to his Irish heritage). And China was regularly labelled a “threat”.
Keir Starmer, by contrast, would like to be everyone’s friend. That much was made clear by his speech at last night’s Lord Mayor’s Banquet. He spoke of “renewed relations with our neighbours in Europe”, thanked Donald Trump for “graciously” hosting him for dinner at Trump Tower and rebuked his recent predecessors for failing to meet China’s Xi Jinping (as he did last month). Invoking Winston Churchill and Clement Attlee, he rejected the notion that “somehow we’re with either America or Europe”.
This is an attempt, as Peter Mandelson – the potential next UK ambassador to the US – recently put it, to “have our cake and eat it”. According to this logic, Britain can at once deepen economic and security ties with the US and with Europe.
It’s a nice idea but how plausible is it? Government insiders are hopeful that the UK may fare better under Trump than some expect. Through artful diplomacy, they aim to avoid tariffs of the scale the President-elect has vowed to impose on Europe, China, Canada and Mexico. But the more special treatment Britain enjoys, the harder it will be to deepen relations with with the EU.
The same could also prove true of relations with China. Britain is currently an outlier in refusing to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (with the US and Europe levying tariffs of 100 per cent and 45 per cent respectively). But a Trump White House is expected to target this anomaly.
At every turn, Starmer will face pressure to pick a side. The US and UK right will implore him to choose America – as Britain’s closest security ally and its single biggest trading partner. European and British liberals will urge him to choose the EU, with which the UK still does far more trade than the US. Should UK economic growth continue to disappoint, Starmer’s vow not to re-join the single market or the customs union – repeated last night – will come under greater pressure.
To govern is to choose – and events could force the Prime Minister to do so (recall how the pro-European Tony Blair was ultimately drawn to the US). That has already proved true on a domestic level. Before the election, Labour happily insisted that it could be both “pro-business” and “pro-worker”. In practice – as the DP World clash and the tax-raising Budget showed – that is far more complicated. Seeking to remain both pro-European and pro-American in a new era of geopolitical rivalry could prove no less fraught.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here.
[See also: Britain needs a strong economy to be secure]
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