In the early hours of 28 February, Donald Trump announced a “massive and ongoing” military operation against Iran. Large explosions were reported across Tehran and several other Iranian cities as the United States and Israel launched a barrage of air strikes. Witnesses described panic in the Iranian capital, where the workweek had just begun, and smoke rising from the direction of the presidential palace. The Pentagon called the campaign “Operation Epic Fury”.
The assault on Iran is not a surprise. The US military build-up in the region has been evident for weeks, even as successive rounds of talks ostensibly sought to head off a conflict. On the eve of the strikes, the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, warned American embassy workers in Jerusalem that if they planned to leave, they should “do so TODAY”. Trump warned on 27 February that he was “not happy” with the progress of negotiations with Tehran.
Less clear is the US’s endgame in Iran. In his State of the Union address to Congress four days earlier, Trump claimed that the US military had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear weapons programme during “Operation Midnight Hammer” last June but insisted that Tehran had refused to give up its “sinister” nuclear ambitions. “They want to make a deal,” he said, “but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon.'” In fact, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has said those words several times, which were included in the preamble to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal Tehran signed in 2015, from which Trump subsequently withdrew.
In the pre-recorded video the US president posted on Truth Social announcing the start of the conflict, Trump gave a series of explanations. These ranged from attacks by Iran and its proxies on US personnel over the past half-century, to Hamas’s assault on Israel on 7 October 2023, the Iranian missile programme, the regime’s violent suppression of protests in recent months, and what Trump insisted was Tehran’s ongoing pursuit of nuclear weapons. “They’ve rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can’t take it anymore,” Trump said, standing behind a lectern wearing a white baseball cap emblazoned with the letters “USA”. “We will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It’s a very simple message.”
Yet Trump also called for regime change, promising the “great proud people of Iran” that the “hour of your freedom is at hand”. Civilians should shelter insider their homes because “bombs will be dropping everywhere,” he warned. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.” He demanded that the “Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police” must lay down their weapons – in which case they could expect “complete immunity” – or face “certain death”. How, exactly, they were meant to surrender remained unclear. He vowed that the campaign would “raze [Iran’s] missile industry to the ground” and “annihilate their navy”.
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, echoed Trump’s message, declaring that the military campaign, which he called Operation Lion’s Roar, would be “far more powerful” than last year’s 12-day war. He urged Iranian citizens to “establish a new and free Iran” and to take their destiny “into your own hands”. Together with the United States, Netanyahu said, Israel would “create conditions that will allow the brave Iranian people to cast off the yoke of this murderous regime”.
Trump warned that the US should expect American military casualties. “The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties,” he said. “That often happens in war.” He claimed they were fighting “for the future” as part of a “noble mission”. He did not explain why, if this is indeed a war, he has not sought a vote in the Congress to authorise the campaign, which has the sole constitutional power in the US to declare war.
This is a political gamble for a president who returned to power last year promising to end the country’s “endless wars” and to reduce its foreign entanglements, particularly at a time when Americans say their main concern is the economy and the cost of living. A CBS poll conducted after the State of the Union address on 24 February found that almost three in four (72 per cent) of respondents thought that Trump had not clearly explained the rationale for US military action against Iran. Overall, more than half (53 per cent) said they would oppose a US military campaign that aimed to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons, although 82 per cent of Republicans said they were in favour.
During the initial hours of the conflict, there was no indication that the Iranian regime intended to comply with Trump’s demand that they should lay down their weapons. Instead, Tehran said it had launched retaliatory strikes against US military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE. Jordan, meanwhile, reported that they had intercepted two ballistic missiles that had entered its airspace. Israel, which has declared a state of emergency and plans to call up military reserves, reported that Iranian missiles had struck sites across the country.
Trump’s experience of deploying military force thus far in his presidency has delivered swift, decisive results that have enabled him to claim a series of victories against his adversaries. History cautions against expecting the same outcome this time around as the US embarks on its latest war for regime change in the Middle East.
[Further reading: How much longer can Iran’s Islamic Republic survive?]
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