Securing Venezuela’s oil, keeping China out of Latin America, removing a dictator, fighting socialism: the reasons President Donald Trump gave for sending special forces to capture President Nicolás Maduro last night, under the cover of a bombardment of Caracas, have been scattergun over the past few months. A United States armada had been amassing in the Caribbean.
Trump is wielding the most powerful military in the world with impunity. Oversight from Congress is minimal. International organisations, whether it is the United Nations or the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac), have once again been unmasked as irrelevant and powerless. This operation lays bare the reality of power in the new world Trump is creating. Perhaps predictions that America was no longer the world’s police force were premature. It is just that he is now enforcing his own law, without the pretence of protecting international law.
It also shows that the few isolationists within the administration are out in the cold. The hawkish faction, led by the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has prevailed over those who want the administration to shun the outside world in favour of rebuilding America at home. Recall that Richard Grenell, Trump’s ambassador to Germany during his first term, was initially given responsibility for Venezuela policy and opted for a more diplomatic approach, only for Rubio to usurp him as the leading figure on Latin America.
Maduro’s seizure might look like piratical chaos, particularly when paired with the Christmas Day strikes in Nigeria, which were supposedly carried out to protect persecuted Christians. But through the carnage, the faint outline of a strategy can be discerned. What Steve Bannon once described as “hemispheric defence” means that Russian and Chinese influence in the region must be purged. As Ed Conway has also pointed out, American oil refineries need Venezuela’s heavy crude, which they cannot obtain from shale reserves. At the same time, the White House’s alliances with Javier Milei in Argentina and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador show that Trump wants leaders in his own backyard who think and govern in his own image. He is remaking the hemisphere to fit American interests.
Regime change is a tricky business. Rubio has reportedly told Senator Mike Lee that President Maduro and his wife are now being taken to America, where he will be put on trial on criminal charges. Even if this proves to be merely an extraction operation, questions remain: what happens next in Caracas? Who takes power? What is the White House’s plan for a post-Maduro Venezuela?
The administration seems willing to gamble on anarchy in order to send a message to the wider world. Reports suggest that a Chinese delegation was in Caracas hours before the attack began. A coincidence, perhaps. But the message was clear: this is our sphere, and we will do whatever is necessary to remain its dominant power.
[Further reading: Is Trump the last neoconservative?]
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