Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Canada
15 September 2021

Canadian election 2021: Will Justin Trudeau’s Liberals be defeated?

The Canadian prime minister’s decision to call a snap election is looking risky as polling day approaches.

By Ben Walker

Having governed without a majority since 2019, Canadian prime minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau has long hoped to achieve outright victory. Yet his party has not only fallen behind in the polls since he called a snap election in August, it now runs the risk of losing its largest party status in parliament.


Who’s ahead in the polls?


Who will win the most seats?


Who do Canadians want as prime minister?


There are many seats marked by forecaster 338Canada as being in “toss-up” territory, suggesting this contest, and Trudeau’s political future, may go to the wire.


 

Trudeau’s saving grace, however, is that he will likely have a much easier task of forming a coalition or gaining support in parliament than Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives. The third and fourth largest parties in Canada – the New Democrats and Bloc Québécois – are ideologically more inclined to work with Trudeau than they are with O’Toole.



Like Theresa May in the UK in 2017, Justin Trudeau may have committed a significant political mistake: it is possible that the Conservatives could become the largest party or even secure a majority, and he could lose the premiership on 20 September.

Sign up for The New Statesman’s newsletters Tick the boxes of the newsletters you would like to receive. Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. The best of the New Statesman, delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. A handy, three-minute glance at the week ahead in companies, markets, regulation and investment, landing in your inbox every Monday morning. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A weekly dig into the New Statesman’s archive of over 100 years of stellar and influential journalism, sent each Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
I consent to New Statesman Media Group collecting my details provided via this form in accordance with the Privacy Policy