Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Business
  2. Economics
2 June 2021updated 06 Oct 2021 3:46pm

UK forecast to suffer the worst economic scarring of any G7 country

Joe Biden’s stimulus plan means the US economy is predicted to be larger than expected before Covid-19, while Britain suffers long-term damage.

By Polly Bindman

The dual impact of Covid-19 and Brexit means that the UK faces deeper economic scarring than any other country, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). 

In its latest economic outlook, the OECD suggests that overall global growth will continue to accelerate as Covid-19 vaccines are rolled out and fiscal stimulus programmes are introduced. But although the UK’s GDP is forecast to rise by 7.2 per cent in 2021 – higher than most G20 countries – the OECD also predicts that the UK will suffer the deepest economic scarring, or long-term damage, of any G7 country.

The OECD measures losses in potential output due to Covid by comparing pre-pandemic projections for national income levels with forecasts for 2025. The UK could suffer the largest reduction in potential growth output of any G7 country, something partially attributable to Brexit-related disruption. By contrast, the US is the only economy forecast to be larger than expected before Covid-19, owing to the $1.9trn stimulus programme introduced by the Biden administration. 

Select and enter your email address Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. Your new guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture each weekend - from the New Statesman. A weekly newsletter helping you fit together the pieces of the global economic slowdown. A newsletter showcasing the finest writing from the ideas section, covering political ideas, philosophy, criticism and intellectual history - sent every Wednesday. The New Statesman’s weekly environment email on the politics, business and culture of the climate and nature crises - in your inbox every Thursday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.

Content from our partners
How do we restore trust in the public sector?
A better future starts at home
How to create an inclusive workplace and embrace neurodiversity