Why Labour has reason to hope

New data shows that 88 per cent of Osborne's cuts are still to come.

The benefits cap, which MPs voted through yesterday, is becoming an ever bigger headache for Labour. In the week that Fred Goodwin lost his knighthood and Stephen Hester lost his bonus it's worth remembering that the family next door living off benefits grates far more with voters than the banker in his mansion.

Indeed, the latest polls confirm that the policy is probably the most popular measure the government has announced. The most recent YouGov survey shows that 72 per cent of voters support the £26,000 cap and that 52 per cent want a lower threshold. Labour's reasoned objections to the cap fail to cut through because few voters are interested in the facts. They've simply fallen for the populist line that "no family should receive more in out-of-work benefits than the average family receives for going out of work". Liam Byrne's insistence that "we are in favour of a benefit cap, but we like a cap that doesn't backfire" makes little sense to voters. Why would a cap of £26,000 - an amount that seems generous to most people- backfire?

The one hope for Labour is that as the full force of Osborne's austerity programme is felt the mood will shift. The startling fact from yesterday's Institute for Fiscal Studies Green Budget that 88 per cent of the planned public spending cuts and 88 per cent of the planned welfare cuts are still to come explains why Ed Balls and Ed Miliband believe they can still turn round the polls (the Tories currently enjoy a 12-point lead as the party that would best handle the economy). As many families experience unemployment for the first time in a generation, these ratings will begin to shift.

For this reason, it's unsurprising to learn this morning from ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie that Number 10 is not forecasting a Tory majority at the next election. As I've noted before, even after the boundary changes have been implemented, the Tories will still need a seven point lead to win a majority. Labour, conversely, will require a lead of just 4 per cent. Another hung parliament looks like the most likely outcome of the next election. Those Conservative optimists and those Labour pessimists who expect to see a Tory majority in 2015 should look again at the data.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Michael Carrick is the “Geordie Pirlo” that England misunderstood

The Manchester United legend’s retirement announcement should leave Three Lions fans wondering what if?

That it came in the months leading up to a World Cup arguably added an exclamation point to the announcement of Michael Carrick’s impending retirement. The Manchester United midfielder, who is expected to take up a coaching role with the club afterwards, will hang up his boots at the end of the season. And United boss Jose Mourinho’s keenness to keep Carrick at Old Trafford in some capacity only serves to emphasise how highly he rates the 36-year-old.

But Carrick’s curtain call in May will be caveated by one striking anomaly on an otherwise imperious CV: his international career. Although at club level Carrick has excelled – winning every top tier honour a player based in England possibly can – he looks set to retire with just 34 caps for his country, and just one of those was earned at a major tournament.

This, in part, is down to the quality of competition he has faced. Indeed, much of the conversation around England’s midfield in the early to mid-noughties centred on finding a system that could accommodate both box-to-box dynamos Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard.

As time went on, however, focus shifted towards trequartistas, advanced playmakers and those with more mobile, harrying playing styles. And the likes of Jack Wilshere, Ross Barkley, Jordan Henderson and Dele Alli were brought into the frame more frequently than Carrick, whose deep-lying capabilities were not utilised to their full potential. That nearly 65 per cent of Carrick’s England caps have come in friendlies shows how undervalued he was. 

In fairness, Carrick does not embody similar characteristics to many of his England midfield contemporaries, including a laudable lack of ego. He is not blessed with lung-busting pace, nor is he enough of a ball-winner to shield a back four solo. Yet his passing and distribution satisfy world-class criteria, with a range only matched, as far as England internationals go, by his former United team-mate Paul Scholes, who was also misused when playing for his country.

Rather, the player Carrick resembles most isn’t English at all; it’s Andrea Pirlo, minus the free-kicks. When comparisons between the mild-mannered Geordie and Italian football’s coolest customer first emerged, they were dismissed in some quarters as hyperbole. Yet watching Carrick confirm his retirement plans this week, perfectly bearded and reflecting on a trophy-laden 12-year spell at one of world football’s grandest institutions, the parallels have become harder to deny.

Michael Carrick at a press event ahead of Manchester United's Champions League game this week. Photo: Getty.

Where other players would have been shown the door much sooner, both Pirlo and Carrick’s efficient style of play – built on patience, possession and precision – gifted them twilights as impressive as many others’ peaks. That at 36, Carrick is still playing for a team in the top two of the top division in English football, rather than in lower-league or moneyed foreign obscurity, speaks volumes. At the same age, Pirlo started for Juventus in the Champions League final of 2015.

It is ill health, not a decline in ability, which is finally bringing Carrick’s career to a close. After saying he “felt strange” during the second-half of United’s 4-1 win over Burton Albion earlier this season, he had a cardiac ablation procedure to treat an irregular heart rhythm. He has since been limited to just three more appearances this term, of which United won two. 

And just how key to United’s success Carrick has been since his £18m signing from Tottenham in 2006 cannot be overstated. He was United’s sole signing that summer, yielding only modest excitement, and there were some Red Devils fans displeased with then manager Sir Alex Ferguson’s decision to assign Carrick the number 16 jersey previously worn by departed captain Roy Keane. Less than a year later, though, United won their first league title in four years. The following season, United won the league and Champions League double, with Carrick playing 49 times across all competitions.

Failing to regularly deploy Carrick in his favoured role – one that is nominally defensive in its position at the base of midfield, but also creative in providing through-balls to the players ahead – must be considered one of the most criminal oversights of successive England managers’ tenures. Unfortunately, Carrick’s heart condition means that current boss Gareth Southgate is unlikely to be able to make amends this summer.

By pressing space, rather than players, Carrick compensates for his lack of speed by marking passing channels and intercepting. He is forever watching the game around him and his unwillingness to commit passes prematurely and lose possession is as valuable an asset as when he does spot an opening.

Ultimately, while Carrick can have few regrets about his illustrious career, England fans and management alike can have plenty. Via West Ham, Spurs and United, the Wallsend-born émigré has earned his billing as one of the most gifted midfielders of his generation, but he’d never let on.

Rohan Banerjee is a Special Projects Writer at the New Statesman. He co-hosts the No Country For Brown Men podcast.