US presidential election 2020: what the latest polling shows

Ben Walker writes:


A slew of new polls in the aftermath of the Republican National Convention record a number of shifts, but not necessarily, as yet, trends. The first is that voter certainty and confidence in both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have drifted somewhat, particularly among minorities and non-college educated whites respectively. In Florida, a new survey shows Joe Biden leading Latinos, but with a much reduced lead from what Hillary Clinton had in 2016.


Similar surveys elsewhere bump up Trump’s chances in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina; but reduced enthusiasm among non-college educated whites has gifted Biden with larger leads in Michigan and Arizona.


We’ll need one more week of surveys to gauge whether we’re seeing the beginning of a sustained shift, or just a bit of poll noise. Nonetheless, the New Statesman model has upped Trump’s chances of keeping control of the White House from one-in-ten 50 days ago to now near one-in-five.


For more on Biden's chances of securing the presidency, see my analysis here.

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