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The challenges facing the Conservatives are mostly structural and may be impossible to overcome.
Such a clear U-turn would cement a corrosive narrative that could prove far more damaging to his prospects of becoming Prime Minister – that of weakness.
A Conservative majority remains unlikely and EU treaty change could take many years to come to fruition.
Regional parties mitigate the threat of a single populist party winning national support.
Worsening jobs figures, Romney's ad blitz and low approval ratings are reasons for Obama not to be complacent.