The rise of Emmanuel Macron's party has shattered the accepted wisdom.
Placed under formal investigation, the Conservative candidate has chosen to stay in the race - despite having promised not to do so.
The crucial variable is not British power but the weakness of Europe.
The other 27 governments in the EU may struggle to maintain a common line once the phoney war ends.
The German Eurocrat is the biggest threat to the possibility of a fourth term for Merkel.
At the French presidential candidate's London rally, supporters cheered for a reformist.
The support of the perennial candidate for President will boost Macron's morale but won't transform his electoral standing.
The two politicians have caused excitement - but so far, neither has had to articulate a programme.
The French presidential candidate warned that he would not accept "any caveat or any waiver" at a press briefing in London.
The former Taoiseach says Brexit has been interpreted as "a profoundly unfriendly act"
Macron is the frontrunner, but he remains vulnerable to an upset.
The Zombie PM