Ground invasion of Gaza by Israel more likely as rocket attacks continue

Hamas HQ hit on fourth day of Israeli air strikes on Gaza.

Speculation is growing that a ground invasion by Israel in Gaza is becoming increasingly likely. The BBC is reporting that Israel has put 75,000 reservists on stand-by, and deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon told CNN that an invasion could happen before the end of the weekend:

"We don't want to get into Gaza if we don't have to. But if they keep firing at us … a ground operation is still on the cards," he said. "If we see in the next 24 to 36 hours more rockets launched at us, I think that would be the trigger."

Watch his interview in full:

Israeli air strikes are continuing on the Gaza strip. Reuters reports that the office building of Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh - where he had met on Friday with the Egyptian prime minister - was hit, as was the house of a Hamas leader in Jabaliya, north of Gaza City.

Egypt's president, Mohammed Morsi, called the attacks on Gaza "a blatant aggression against humanity" and said that "Egypt will not leave Gaza on its own". President Obama has praised Egypt's efforts to "deescalate" the tensions in the region.

The hundreds of tunnels in the south of Gaza, which are used to smuggle food, fuel and weapons from Egypt, have also been targeted by Israeli air strikes, the Guardian reports. The Israeli military say that over 800 targets have been struck since the operation began (Associated Press). It's thought that about 500 rockets have been fired towards Israel.

At least 38 Palestinians and three Israelis have died since Israel killed Hamas's military commander on Wednesday.

A plume of smoke rises over Gaza during an Israeli air strike, as seen from Sderot. Photograph: Getty Images

Caroline Crampton is web editor of the New Statesman.

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Donald Trump is the Republican nominee. What now?

So a Clinton-Trump general election is assured – a historically unpopular match-up based on their current favourability ratings.

That’s it. Ted Cruz bowed out of the Republican presidential race last night, effectively handing the nomination to Donald Trump. “From the beginning I’ve said that I would continue on as long as there was a viable path to victory,” Cruz said. “Tonight, I’m sorry to say it appears that path has been foreclosed.”

What foreclosed his path was his sizeable loss to Trump in Indiana. Cruz had bet it all on the Hoosier State, hoping to repeat his previous Midwest victories in Iowa and Wisconsin. He formed a pact with John Kasich, whereby Kasich left the anti-Trump field clear for Cruz in Indiana in return for Cruz not campaigning in Oregon and New Mexico. He announced Carly Fiorina as his vice-presidential nominee last week, hoping the news would give him a late boost.

It didn’t work. Donald Trump won Indiana handily, with 53% of the vote to Cruz’s 37%. Trump won all of the state’s nine congressional districts, and so collected all 57 of the convention delegates on offer. He now has 1,014 delegates bound to him on the convention’s first ballot, plus 34 unbound delegates who’ve said they’ll vote for him (according to Daniel Nichanian’s count).

That leaves Trump needing just 189 more to hit the 1,237 required for the nomination – a number he was very likely to hit in the remaining contests before Cruz dropped out (it’s just 42% of the 445 available), and that he is now certain to achieve. No need to woo more unbound delegates. No contested convention. No scrambling for votes on the second ballot. 

Though Bernie Sanders narrowly won the Democratic primary in Indiana, he’s still 286 pledged delegates short of Hillary Clinton. He isn’t going to win the 65% of remaining delegates he’d need to catch up. Clinton now needs just 183 more delegates to reach the required 2,383. Like Trump, she is certain to reach that target on 7th June when a number of states vote, including the largest: California.

So a Clinton-Trump general election is assured – a historically unpopular match-up based on their current favourability ratings. But while Clinton is viewed favourably by 42% of voters and unfavourably by 55%, Trump is viewed favourably by just 35% and unfavourably by a whopping 61%. In head-to-head polling (which isn’t particularly predictive this far from election day), Clinton leads with 47% to Trump’s 40%. Betting markets make Clinton the heavy favourite, with a 70% chance of winning the presidency in November.

Still, a few questions that remain as we head into the final primaries and towards the party conventions in July: how many Republican officeholders will reluctantly endorse Trump, how many will actively distance themselves from him, and how many will try to remain silent? Will a conservative run as an independent candidate against Trump in the general election? Can Trump really “do presidential” for the next six months, as he boasted recently, and improve on his deep unpopularity?

And on the Democratic side: will Sanders concede gracefully and offer as full-throated an endorsement of Clinton as she did of Barack Obama eight years ago? It was on 7th June 2008 that she told her supporters: “The way to continue our fight now, to accomplish the goals for which we stand is to take our energy, our passion, our strength, and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama, the next president of the United States.” Will we hear something similar from Sanders next month? 

Jonathan Jones writes for the New Statesman on American politics.