While Tories fret about Brussels, a more interesting question is who now decides EU policy - the nations of Europe, or the Kremlin?

Tony Blair leapt to being a world player when he lined up Bill Clinton with Europe to stop the butchery in Kosovo. But missiles, bombs and military presence are not enough. Kosovo is still without status or statehood, and now Russia is defying Europe and the United States by saying nyet to any move forward. Soon Gordon Brown and his Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, will have to decide whether to take a stand on Balkan policy, or let the Kremlin displace the EU in the region.

While Slovenia is already in the EU, and Croatia is on the road to accession, the real prize for peace and stability in the region remains Serbia. Belgrade is the capital of the Balkans - with a clever, educated, multilingual and post-industrial people ready, once Serbia is in the EU, to take the entire region to its long-overdue rendezvous with 21st-century modernity.

The historical links between Serbia and Kosovo are undisputed. But like with the English centuries-long suzerainty over Ireland, Serbs find it hard to admit that the time has come for Kosovo to follow Croatia and Slovenia in freeing itself from Belgrade's tutelage.

After the military intervention in 1999, Kosovo became a limbo land, under the control of the UN but still not fully independent from Serbia. This non-independence and non-recognition no longer makes sense. Kosovo has to be freed from Serbia precisely to allow Serbia to free itself to enter the EU and Nato. In private, all serious Serbian political leaders, other than ultra-nationalists and Milosevic leftovers, agree that Kosovo can never return to control by Belgrade. But in public, no one has the courage to say it is time to let Kosovo go.

The UN asked the former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari to produce a plan allowing Kosovo conditional independence under EU supervision. The US and the EU accept this compromise, but the Russians have announced they will veto the plan at the UN. Ostensibly their justification is that both Pristina and Belgrade have to come to a deal. But since the Serbs will not accept even a conditionally independent Kosovo, the Russian position is dishonest. Moscow's ambition is to see the Balkanisation of Europe rather than the Europeanisation of the Balkans.

The endgame is clear. It is a Serbia, free of Kosovo, joining Croatia and Slovenia in an EU and Nato that can bring prosperity and security to the Balkans. The region's future should be decided by Europe, not Moscow. Slovenia takes over the EU presidency in January 2008. Europe supported that country's assertion of independence against Belgrade, and Kosovo deserves no less - with, or without, the permission of Russia.

Denis MacShane is Labour MP for Rotherham. As a Foreign Office minister he travelled frequently to the Balkans