In the pursuit of electoral success, it is wise to expect the unexpected. Could it be that Labour's modest comeback runs out of gas not because of the perceived power of the Unite union, nor the state of the economy, but because of the price of petrol? The AA warns that fuel prices may hit
a "record high" of 120p a litre within a matter of weeks.
Thanks to some expert number-crunching by Mike Smithson, editor of the PoliticalBetting blog and our polling columnist, it is possible to observe an unmistakable correlation between the price of petrol and the electoral prospects of the government: the price goes down, Labour prospers; the price goes up, Labour's ratings tumble.
Indeed, between 1997 and 2005, the only time the Tories edged ahead of Labour in the polls was during the 2000 fuel protests. Moreover, any price hike now is likely to have the greatest impact on those car-dependent voters in English middle-sized towns - the very marginal constituencies that Labour needs to prevent the Tories from winning. Gordon Brown, you have been warned.
