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Political predictions for 2009

Published 18 December 2008

James Macintyre taps the political barometer

Gordon Brown will resist calls for a 2009 general election, hoping that time will fully restore his reputation.

By the end of the year, the two main parties will have switched positions in the polls, with the Conservatives heading into 2010 languishing below 30 per cent. However, the government will enter one more period of crisis and unpopularity in the first half of 2009, and will be punished in the local and European elections in June in an angry backlash against the economic situation.

The economies of both the US and the UK will, as Barack Obama has warned, get worse before they get better, with the house-price crash continuing and unemployment in the UK passing the totemic three million mark.

Splits will emerge between Obama and his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, with the latter pushing for a more interventionist foreign policy.

Afghanistan will prove Obama's nemesis: there will be renewed bloodshed and no solution to the conflict.

Lord Malloch-Brown, the Foreign Office minister responsible for Africa, will fall out with the chief of the defence staff, Sir Jock Stirrup, and Defence Secretary John Hutton over Congo: Malloch-Brown, keen to send troops to the region, will face resistance from these two, who fear military "overstretch".

The UK recession will deepen with a series of industrial crises, particularly for the car industry as General Motors goes bust and Vauxhall and Honda pull out of the UK. The construction and retail sectors will continue to suffer declines in demand.

The media consensus that David Cameron has "modernised" sufficiently to win office will unravel as pressure builds for his equivalent to Neil Kinnock's expulsion of Militant in 1985. Abandoning the ideological commitment to tax cuts remains Cameron's best hope for a Clause Four moment, but he will retreat into tax and spending cuts and neo-Thatcher monetarism.

Europe will remain a headache for Cameron (who will be forced not to quit the centre-right European People's Party grouping in Brussels) after Ireland narrowly votes Yes in a second Lisbon treaty referendum towards autumn. Cameron will have to decide whether to ditch his own commitment to a referendum.

David Blunkett will return to the political front line in a party role, helping to take the Labour message to the country.

Alistair Darling will remain Chancellor of the Exchequer.

The Liberal Democrats will continue to drift downwards in the polls, having lost the sharp identity given to them by Charles Kennedy's opposition to the Iraq invasion and commitment to a penny on income tax.

Ed Miliband will emerge as the up-and-coming politician of 2009 and come to be regarded as Brown's natural successor.

David Cameron will continue to resist calls to enhance his party's economic credibility by appointing Kenneth Clarke as shadow chancellor, partly because of Europe and partly because he fears Clarke would outshine him.

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7 comments from readers

mike_brighton
19 December 2008 at 14:17

Isn't there an major intellectual inconsistency between:

"By the end of the year, the two main parties will have switched positions in the polls, with the Conservatives heading into 2010 languishing below 30 per cent"

and

"The economies of both the US and the UK will, as Barack Obama has warned, get worse before they get better, with the house-price crash continuing and unemployment in the UK passing the totemic three million mark." or "The UK recession will deepen with a series of industrial crises, particularly for the car industry as General Motors goes bust and Vauxhall and Honda pull out of the UK."

Laughable! Are you a student intern?

mark
20 December 2008 at 11:14

If, as the article contends, the Conservatives head into 2010 below 30% in the polls and the Liberal Democrats continue to drift downards in the polls, then, assuming no rise in support for the BNP and other fringe parties, simple mathematics would seem to indicate that the prediction is that Labour will be at about 50%. Other predictions for 2009 include the UK economy getitng worse, the house price crash continuing, unemployment over 3 million and a deepening recession. Yes, I can see now why Labour would be doing so well in the polls.

gnuneo
25 December 2008 at 06:39

poorest selection of 'prophesies' in the NS this year.

but then, its hard to be a good prophet when one is only moonlighting from ones normal role as a propagandist, isn't that right James?

oh, and btw - Blunkett is as loathed as Meddlesome, and Ed the Millipede is going *nowhere* politically, apart from - at best - running away from Labour to cross to the Tories when he gets the chop by the Party.

along with the rest of the authoritarian, war-making and poverty making NuLabour apparatchiks.

antileft
30 December 2008 at 04:40

"Abandoning the ideological commitment to tax cuts remains Cameron's best hope for a Clause Four moment, but he will retreat into tax and spending cuts and neo-Thatcher monetarism."

WTF?! Taxes are too high! Thats one hell of a problem for the tories to ignore!!! The state is now even bigger than it is in germany!

Cybertiger
02 January 2009 at 11:40

"Adults will not sexually abuse children"

I wish someone would abuse you, Stephen.

Chirimolla
04 January 2009 at 04:17

BUT NOT BEFORE THE WHOLE COMMENT SECTION BECOMES COMPLETELY UNREADABLE DUE TO EXCESSIVE USE OF BLOCK CAPITALS TO EMPHASISE REPETETIVE COMMENTS.

Camus
05 January 2009 at 09:40

(and without the venefit of a spellcheck)

"The people want an election. Call it. " So, Stephen? How do you know? Who are "the people"? When did they tell you this? If you want a prophecy with some likelihood of fulfillment, try this: "there will be many significant changes in world politics, none of which I will have foretold."