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Pre-Budget report

The key points from this year's crucial pre-Budget report delivered to MPs in the House of Commons.

  • 1530 GMT Alistair Darling is invited by the Speaker to deliver his pre-Budget report.

  • Darling said he wanted to take fair and responsible steps to support people and businesses and put Britain in position to take of advantage of the recovery.

  • He wanted to ensure sound public finances in the medium term to ensure Britain lives within its means

  • The chancellor gave an assessment of the state of the global economy

  • "This is an unprecedented global crisis," he told MPs. The root of the problem was a failure in the global financial system. Restoring financial stability was crucial - and that had to be done internationally

  • Internationally and domestically regulation had to be improved

  • In Britain unemployment was still 2m below the levels of the 1990s when the Tories were in power

  • "We did fix the many roofs that needed fixing - the roofs of hospitals and schools throughout the United Kingdom," Darling said

  • The chancellor said inflation was expected to continue to fall allowing the Bank of England to cut interest rates to a 50 year low

  • Darling then turned to the economic forecasts

  • UK GDP contracted by half a percent in the three months to September. It will contract further next year and output would continue to fall for the first two quarters of 2009 before beginning to recover

  • Britain would have between one and half and two percent growth in 2010, the chancellor predicted

  • The government believed there was a choice - the sink or swim approach [of the Tories] or Labour's way which was to table a package of measures to support people through these difficult times. The pre-Budget report represented a substantial fiscal loosening, Darling said

  • Britain was experiencing significantly lower tax revenues because of the downturn - as was happening in the rest of the world. Tax take on stamp duty alone was down 40 per cent

  • Borrowing would rise to 8 per cent of GDP before falling back down again. By 2016 Britain would be again only borrowing to invest

  • Britain's debt would still be lower than other countries, the chancellor insisted

  • Allowing borrowing to rise was right for Britain

  • Darling said investment in public services would continue

  • £3bn of capital spending for 2010/11 would be brought forward to this year to renovate infrastructure, improve schools and put people people to work

  • The temporary £120 allowance for people who lost out as a result of ending the 10 per cent income tax rate would be made permanent

  • Darling said he would cut VAT from 17.5 per cent to 15 per cent from December 1, 2008 until the beginning of 2010. Equivalent to a 12.5 per cent boost shot in the arm of the economy

  • The chancellor said from there would be an increase in half of a per cent on National Insurance - but the threshold would be raised. No-one earning under £20,000 would pay any more

  • There would be a new higher rate of tax - 45 per cent on those earning more than £150,000

  • Those earning between £100,000 and 140,000 would have their personal allowance reduced, and it would be abolished for those earning more than £140,000

  • There were a number of measures that were targeted at small and medium-sized firms

  • Darling said he was monitoring commitments by banks to ensure they treated businesses fairly

  • The government was offering credit through a small business finance scheme to help with short term cash flow problems

  • Companies would be allowed to offset current losses of up to £50,000 against taxes paid in the past three years - tax would be repaid

  • Air passenger duty would be reformed into a new four band system whereby those travelling further would pay more

  • The chancellor said the most pressing problem for many families was in meeting their energy bills. Unjustified discrepancies in different billing methods would be tackled, said the chancellor

  • The government was going to keep the pressure on energy companies to produce a proportion of their power from renewable sources

  • Steps were being looked at to help ensure the availability of more mortgage products

  • Repossession should be a last resort, families worried about finances should be able to get free debt advice and the chancellor announced a number of measures including new mortgage support for people in work

  • The chancellor also announced new cash to build social housing

  • The chancellor said he would phase in new duty rates for cars

  • In a bid to encourage saving a savings gateway would be set up where the government would add 50p to every £1 saved by low wage earners

  • Pensioners on modest incomes - pension credit would go up from £124 to £130 a week

  • Every pensioner would get a payment of £60 on top of the annual £10 pounds bonus - £70 that would also go to disabled children.

  • Mr Darling finished his statement at 1620

  • Responding Shadow Chancellor George Osborne said Mr Darling was going to double the national debt to £1 trillion an "unexploded tax bombshell". The lie that boom and bust had ended had been comprehensively nailed the Tory politician argued.

    "In the end all Labour chancellors run out of money. All Labour governments bring the country to the verge of bankruptcy," he said

  • Fiscal stimulus only worked when there were strong public finances

  • The pre-Budget report was the greatest failure of public policy in a generation, Osborne said.

  • For the Lib Dems, Vince Cable welcomed some of the chancellor's measures. A serious tax cut concentrated on the low paid was needed. Rather than cutting VAT there should be a cut on income tax for the least well off

  • He added the government was big on rhetoric but not on action

Ben Davies trained as a journalist after taking most of the 1990s off. Prior to joining the New Statesman he spent five years working as a politics reporter for the BBC News website. He lives in North London.
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The French millennials marching behind Marine Le Pen

A Front National rally attracts former socialists with manicured beards, and a lesbian couple. 

“In 85 days, Marine will be President of the French Republic!” The 150-strong crowd cheered at the sound of the words. On stage, the speaker, the vice-president of the far-right Front National (FN), Florian Philippot, continued: “We will be told that it’s the apocalypse, by the same banks, media, politicians, who were telling the British that Brexit would be an immediate catastrophe.

"Well, they voted, and it’s not! The British are much better off than we are!” The applause grew louder and louder. 

I was in the medieval city of Metz, in a municipal hall near the banks of the Moselle River, a tributary of the Rhine from which the region takes its name. The German border lies 49km east; Luxembourg City is less than an hour’s drive away. This is the "Country of the Three Borders", equidistant from Strasbourg and Frankfurt, and French, German and French again after various wars. Yet for all that local history is deeply rooted in the wider European history, votes for the Front National rank among the highest nationally, and continue to rise at every poll. 

In rural Moselle, “Marine”, as the Front National leader Marine Le Pen is known, has an envoy. In 2014, the well-spoken, elite-educated Philippot, 35, ran for mayor in Forbach, a former miner’s town near the border. He lost to the Socialist candidate but has visited regularly since. Enough for the locals to call him “Florian".

I grew up in a small town, Saint-Avold, halfway between Metz and Forbach. When my grandfather was working in the then-prosperous coal mines, the Moselle region attracted many foreign workers. Many of my fellow schoolmates bore Italian and Polish surnames. But the last mine closed in 2004, and now, some of the immigrants’ grandchildren are voting for the National Front.

Returning, I can't help but wonder: How did my generation, born with the Maastricht treaty, end up turning to the Eurosceptic, hard right FN?

“We’ve seen what the other political parties do – it’s always the same. We must try something else," said Candice Bertrand, 23, She might not be part of the group asking Philippot for selfies, but she had voted FN at every election, and her family agreed. “My mum was a Communist, then voted for [Nicolas] Sarkozy, and now she votes FN. She’s come a long way.”  The way, it seemed, was political distrust.

Minutes earlier, Philippot had pleaded with the audience to talk to their relatives and neighbours. Bertrand had brought her girlfriend, Lola, whom she was trying to convince to vote FN.  Lola wouldn’t give her surname – her strongly left-wing family would “certainly not” like to know she was there. She herself had never voted.

This infuriated Bertrand. “Women have fought for the right to vote!” she declared. Daily chats with Bertrand and her family had warmed up Lola to voting Le Pen in the first round, although not yet in the second. “I’m scared of a major change,” she confided, looking lost. “It’s a bit too extreme.” Both were too young to remember 2002, when a presidential victory for the then-Front National leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, was only a few percentage points away.

Since then, under the leadership of his daughter, Marine, the FN has broken every record. But in this region, the FN’s success isn’t new. In 2002, when liberal France was shocked to see Le Pen reach the second round of the presidential election, the FN was already sailing in Moselle. Le Pen grabbed 23.7 per cent of the Moselle vote in the first round and 21.9 per cent in the second, compared to 16.9 per cent and 17.8 per cent nationally. 

The far-right vote in Moselle remained higher than the national average before skyrocketing in 2012. By then, the younger, softer-looking Marine had taken over the party. In that year, the FN won an astonishing 24.7 per cent of the Moselle vote, and 17.8 per cent nationwide.

For some people of my generation, the FN has already provided opportunities. With his manicured beard and chic suit, Emilien Noé still looks like the Young Socialist he was between 16 and 18 years old. But looks can be deceiving. “I have been disgusted by the internal politics at the Socialist Party, the lack of respect for the low-ranked campaigners," he told me. So instead, he stood as the FN’s youngest national candidate to become mayor in his village, Gosselming, in 2014. “I entered directly into action," he said. (He lost). Now, at just 21, Noé is the FN’s youth coordinator for Eastern France.

Metz, Creative Commons licence credit Morgaine

Next to him stood Kevin Pfeiffer, 27. He told me he used to believe in the Socialist ideal, too - in 2007, as a 17-year-old, he backed Ségolène Royal against Sarkozy. But he is now a FN local councillor and acts as the party's general co-ordinator in the region. Both Noé and Pfeiffer radiated a quiet self-confidence, the sort that such swift rises induces. They shared a deep respect for the young-achiever-in-chief: Philippot. “We’re young and we know we can have perspectives in this party without being a graduate of l’ENA,” said another activist, Olivier Musci, 24. (The elite school Ecole Nationale d’Administration, or ENA, is considered something of a mandatory finishing school for politicians. It counts Francois Hollande and Jacques Chirac among its alumni. Ironically, Philippot is one, too.)

“Florian” likes to say that the FN scores the highest among the young. “Today’s youth have not grown up in a left-right divide”, he told me when I asked why. “The big topics, for them, were Maastricht, 9/11, the Chinese competition, and now Brexit. They have grown up in a political world structured around two poles: globalism versus patriotism.” Notably, half his speech was dedicated to ridiculing the FN's most probably rival, the maverick centrist Emmanuel Macron. “It is a time of the nations. Macron is the opposite of that," Philippot declared. 

At the rally, the blue, red and white flame, the FN’s historic logo, was nowhere to be seen. Even the words “Front National” had deserted the posters, which were instead plastered with “in the name of the people” slogans beneath Marine’s name and large smile. But everyone wears a blue rose at the buttonhole. “It’s the synthesis between the left’s rose and the right’s blue colour”, Pfeiffer said. “The symbol of the impossible becoming possible.” So, neither left nor right? I ask, echoing Macron’s campaign appeal. “Or both left and right”, Pfeiffer answered with a grin.

This nationwide rebranding follows years of efforts to polish the party’s jackass image, forged by decades of xenophobic, racist and anti-Semitic declarations by Le Pen Sr. His daughter evicted him from the party in 2015.

Still, Le Pen’s main pledges revolve around the same issue her father obsessed over - immigration. The resources spent on "dealing with migrants" will, Le Pen promises, be redirected to address the concerns of "the French people". Unemployment, which has been hovering at 10 per cent for years, is very much one of them. Moselle's damaged job market is a booster for the FN - between 10 and 12 per cent of young people are unemployed.

Yet the two phenomena cannot always rationally be linked. The female FN supporters I met candidly admitted they drove from France to Luxembourg every day for work and, like many locals, often went shopping in Germany. Yet they hoped to see the candidate of “Frexit” enter the Elysee palace in May. “We've never had problems to work in Luxembourg. Why would that change?” asked Bertrand. (Le Pen's “144 campaign pledges” promise frontier workers “special measures” to cross the border once out of the Schengen area, which sounds very much like the concept of the Schengen area itself.)

Grégoire Laloux, 21, studied history at the University of Metz. He didn't believe in the European Union. “Countries have their own interests. There are people, but no European people,” he said. “Marine is different because she defends patriotism, sovereignty, French greatness and French history.” He compared Le Pen to Richelieu, the cardinal who made Louis XIV's absolute monarchy possible:  “She, too, wants to build a modern state.”

French populists are quick to link the country's current problems to immigration, and these FN supporters were no exception. “With 7m poor and unemployed, we can't accept all the world's misery,” Olivier Musci, 24, a grandchild of Polish and Italian immigrants, told me. “Those we welcome must serve the country and be proud to be here.”

Lola echoed this call for more assimilation. “At our shopping centre, everyone speaks Arabic now," she said. "People have spat on us, thrown pebbles at us because we're lesbians. But I'm in my country and I have the right to do what I want.” When I asked if the people who attacked them were migrants, she was not so sure. “Let's say, they weren't white.”

Trump promised to “Make America Great Again”. To where would Le Pen's France return? Would it be sovereign again? White again? French again? Ruled by absolutism again? She has blurred enough lines to seduce voters her father never could – the young, the gay, the left-wingers. At the end of his speech, under the rebranded banners, Philippot invited the audience to sing La Marseillaise with him. And in one voice they did: “To arms citizens! Form your battalions! March, march, let impure blood, water our furrows...” The song is the same as the one I knew growing up. But it seemed to me, this time, a more sinister tune.