UK Politics
A tale of two campaigns
Published 03 April 2008
While the big guns are on Boris-watch, Tory ground troops are being drilled for "the locals".
Election fever has kicked in. Mayoral or local, the Tories can't get enough, and the level of dedication has been worthy of the war effort. In a tale of two campaigns, the Boris cabaret continues gaffe-free (at time of going to press) but on-the-ground Conservatives are putting in the hours.
First, Boris. A Tory drafted in to help the Johnson campaign says: "Polls are meaningless at this stage when you are working with someone like Boris. His message of stoking up fear and dissatisfaction will probably change over the next few weeks. He has had to go through a One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest-style mental makeover. They've tied him down; he's behaving." In Edmonton, at the formal launch of the campaign on 31 March, the party's strategy chief, Lynton Crosby, was standing at the side, hovering in a slightly nervous way, like a parent at a school play whose child has a propensity to shout out rude words. A shadow minister says (slightly reluctantly), "It's all Boris at this end. We are told that nothing else matters and we all need to campaign for at least five days."
With less than four weeks to go, the local council elections could prove just as interesting. Historically, the Conservatives have performed well in "the locals". Even under Iain Duncan Smith, during a particularly sticky time for the Tories in 2003, the party's local election campaigns were a triumph.
Conservative associations have had a heavy push from the top, which they all have said is not necessarily a bad thing. The nature of Tory associations is that once they have picked their own candidate they don't mind leadership, control, someone being in charge. The results are crucial. If the Conservatives start winning seats in Manchester and Leeds it's good news for them. What they will be looking for, and what will cause the government sleepless nights, is the little breakthroughs on councils where the Tories have no representatives, such as Liverpool. "Once we have a seat on a Liverpool Council, we have what Thatcher had," said a candidate, going misty-eyed.
All candidates (especially wannabe MPs) and association members have been given sheets with the contact details of the top target seats near them. It is fully expected of them that their lives until 1 May will be dedicated to the cause. Conservatives have finally embraced "mutual aid". Although this may sound like something peddled by Bono, it is a canvassing technique by which those in safe seats go to less safe seats to lend a hand. A tactic the Liberal Democrats have used successfully for years, it is only now that the Tories have properly caught on. Some are paying their pound of flesh to show their devotion and are prepared to go the extra mile or hundred.
One candidate says, "I was put down to canvass at the weekend more than a hundred miles away. This being Britain, there were train problems, so I drove." Imagine the carbon footprint of this leafleting foot soldier . . .
"No panic"
There are numerous places where all the Tories need is a couple of seats to take over the council, but others where they will lose the council if they fail to keep a couple of seats. With David Cameron ahead considerably in the national polls, the proof will be in these results.
There have been mumblings that the media presence of the Tory chairman, Caroline Spelman, has been rather "light". A fellow MP is sympathetic. "A problem with being chairman is often you are travelling all over the UK visiting constituencies, and obviously that will not be picked up - it's not very sexy." Spelman has been grafting quietly, sometimes not so quietly. A few association heads and some high-profile Tories have been on the receiving end of her head girl concerns.
She has covered a huge percentage of Britain, juggling commitments and attempting to rouse the troops with an injection of "can-do" attitude. Many members are very happy with the national poll leads but concerned about a south-east/north divide. (You just can't please these Tories.) Her last conference call to local election candidates was made, crouching in among the coats, from the cloakroom of a hotel in Havant.
At a north-west regional conference recently, Spelman "did a Theresa", telling a roomful of staunch Tories in explicit terms that they need to get better at welcoming defectors from the other side, be more genial hosts. A staff member says "the key theme was Defection is Not a Dirty Word". It has certainly been an irritable few months for Spelman. Her entire house was flooded, her handbag was stolen, and now unimaginative Tory women are copying her haircut.
Cameron is the embodiment of the south-east, however. If the Conservatives can win in the north (let's say a third of the seats), they could be on to something and it would puncture Gordon. Unlike Blair, Brown isn't an actor; if the Tories succeed, he will struggle. Considering the council seats Margaret Thatcher held in 1979 and council seats Blair held in 1997, Gordon knows victory is built on local dominance. He can hope for the best - or start practising the bogus "no panic" face that he finds so very uncomfortable.
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