UK Politics
Back to the future
Published 01 November 2007
Immigration used to be the Tories' "difficult" issue. Not any more.
As David Cameron delivered his bold speech on immigration this week, a senior Conservative MP was very relieved that the checking of the statistics had been so thorough. Aware of the problems even minor miscalculations create, the team behind this latest announcement were not going to get anything wrong.
The time was right for the sort of gutsy statements that are only favourable under specific conditions. A shadow cabinet minister was adamant: "This is a speech that had to be made from a position of strength not weakness, we could never have said it if we were behind. Being ahead in the polls helps, but we could never have known about Peter Hain's further figure error [the 300,000 working foreigners that Labour 'forgot' to count] that came that evening. It was helpful.
"Cameron is talking about immigration because it is the right time. Of course, the release of the population figures was the catalyst. These statistics were an event in their own right, but it was always going to be said." The figures were just the vehicle the Tories needed to back up a "substantial cut" in immigration.
Aware of past charges of racism, those involved in the speech already knew fragile areas, and were determined to get the point over that it is not about race. A strategist dismisses the idea that it was even spoken of: "Everyone knows what the sensitivities are, we didn't need in-depth discussions, the world has moved on. Those involved with writing the speech are young, and see problems with public services, not colour."
Tying immigration in with how the population explosion will impact on schools and hospitals not only allowed a "more adult debate"; it permitted Cameron to talk for an hour about an issue that in the past was often volatile for the Tories.
It worked. Nobody in the post-coverage is saying this is a return to previous failed policies. Nor is it wise any more for Labour to hint at racism. A Cameron strategist considers this to be significant: "This is a big step forward for us, having removed the obvious lefty allegations; it's an accusation they can't make in the future."
Cameron may have finally found a receptive audience. Add to that the Scottish Nationalist's recent conference with a smug-faced Alex Salmond spouting drivel from a hotel room in Aviemore, a Scottish PM, and daily stories of how the Scots are fleecing the Sassenachs down south, is it any wonder Cameron has had a bit of fun questioning the power of Scottish MPs? A party worker says the master of timing is Tory press chief Andy Coulson catching the mood. "His machine kicks in fast, a lot of it is unplanned but he keeps it from getting chaotic. Andy has also cut down on the number of seniors who have to see and clear speeches."
Unlike immigration, the subject of Scottish MPs voting on English matters was slightly forced. A strategist suggests this area is somewhat blurred. "The Scottish issue is all over the place because there are so many different agendas. There hasn't been a tactic, so David seized the opportunity and made a speech, but there are a lot of conflicting projects going on. [Malcolm] Rifkind started it, he set a few hares running with very little consultation with anyone. Then Ken Clarke won't even let us have a look at his report, he's frustratingly stubborn, he may recommend a federal system, but who knows? The real issue is that eventually we will need a debate in the party at the highest level."
Conservatives are pleased, however, that they have riled the touchy government on this one. Ben Wallace, the cherubic shadow minister for Scotland, was due to appear on a number of television and radio programmes with the Labour Inverclyde MP, David Cairns. It appears Cairns was pulled from interviews because No 10 wanted an English MP not a Scot defending the current situation. The Scottish Conservative Party in Edinburgh has said very little; its leader in the Scottish Parliament, Annabelle Goldie, has been curiously silent. Although Goldie looks like an aunt who overcooks the Sunday roast, I'm reassured she tells fabulously filthy jokes.
For all the headline grabbing the Tories have achieved this week, they are aware this is a challenge they could face for up to 30 months. Brown has said very little and any comeback from his cabinet has looked irritable and amateur. Tactically, there is much discussion about Brown's weakness at PMQs; an optimistic backbencher sees the weekly battleground as part of Brown's demise. "PMQs will get to Brown, he'll brood, and he'll hate losing. His quality of decision-making will suffer, he'll be fouler and fouler, and there'll be more leaks."
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