Ukip leader plans to run in Tory-held constituency where his party currently polls first.
The most detailed analysis yet of Ukip’s performance shows its threat to the Labour Party.
Schools are getting worse in Great Yarmouth, the second most likely seat for Ukip to gain their first MP next year.
Sixty per cent believe immigration has benefited Britain and are much more likely to be pro-EU.
The Newark by-election saw centre-left voters hold their noses and back the Tories to stop Ukip.
The party holds the seat with a majority of more than 7,000 as the Lib Dems are pushed into sixth place.
The party is still achieving record ratings in the national polls.
Lord Ashcroft's poll puts them 15 points ahead of Ukip, but they trail Labour by nine points nationally.
Roger Helmer, Ukip's Newark by-election candidate, has responded to the Mail's story about him supporting "gay cures" on the NHS. Angrily.