Past trends suggest the Tories should overtake Labour, but history is a less helpful guide to this election than any other.
While the PM hails figures showing 750 homes have already been bought under the scheme, Labour remains focused on increasing building from its post-war low.
Labour will end the year ahead in the polls, Scotland will reject independence by a double-digit margin and Ed Balls will remain shadow chancellor.
The Labour leader emphasises his long-term plan to reform capitalism in an attempt to rebut the charge that he is too focused on short-term measures.
Both men are failing to articulate a vision that says more about what kind of country Britain should become than about what it has been.
The Labour leader's pledge to give councils the power to act against the "crack cocaine of gambling" will increase the pressure on the PM to intervene.
The shadow London minister's book sets out the policies required to prevent the capital becoming an ever-more divided city.
Labour states unambiguously that it will be "cutting departmental spending in 2015-16" and will not borrow for "day-to-day spending".
So long as Miliband retains the support of around 20% of 2010 Lib Dem voters, the Tories have no hope of victory.
The Labour leader appears determined to avoid the challenge of fixing state services without spending more money on them.