When Conservatives, including Cameron, indicate their eagerness to be a little bit more like UKIP, all they do is give Nigel Farage the credit for setting the agenda.
If the Lib Dems benefit from an incumbency factor and UKIP splits the right-wing vote, the Tories will be the big losers.
The PM faces a backlash after the Lib Dems win the by-election and the Tories finish behind UKIP in third place.
A new poll from Lord Ashcroft putting the Lib Dems five points ahead in the by-election shows that local issues continue to take precedence over national ones.
The Huhne and Rennard scandals mean defeat will be portrayed as a humiliating set-back for Cameron.
The Conservative peer and former deputy chairman on his fascination with polling and why Tory modernisation must continue.
He's one of the Tories’ least understood assets. By pouring money into polling, he has given the party one of its most lethal weapons — but now will Michael Ashcroft unleash his power over information to destroy Cameron?
The Chancellor chose to make Britain's AAA credit rating the ultimate test of economic stability. Tonight, he has been hoist with his own petard.
Defeat in Eastleigh, a higher deficit, a triple-dip recession, poor local election results and the loss of Britain's AAA rating could prompt a new revolt by Tory MPs.