Star Spangled Staggers

US politics from outside the beltway

Paddy Power pays out on Obama victory

The bookmaker is pretty certain of the outcome.

By Alex Hern Published 05 November 2012 10:23

Paddy Power in 2011, when the company changed its name to celebrate Obama's visit to Ireland. Photograph: Getty Images

Paddy Power, the Irish bookmaker, has paid out on all bets that Barack Obama will win the US presidental election a day early, claiming that Obama is "a nailed-on certainty" to win a second term.

The move is part publicity stunt, part business move, and part a betting company taking a bet on the election – to the stake of $650,000, according to a press release from Paddy Power.

The publicity stunt aspect is pretty obvious – you're reading this story, after all – but the business move is slightly more interesting. Paddy Power, as with any betting company which pays out early, hopes punters will re-invest their winnings in a more uncertain bet on the election. The bookmaker is pushing the idea that the margin of victory is a fun bet to take part in, and it's certainly one where you could win more money: the odds of an Obama victory bottomed out at just 2/9, while if you follow Jim Cramer's prediction of a gigantic Obama victory, you could get 25/1.

And as for the bet on the election – well, Paddy Power will be pretty annoyed if they've called it wrong and have to pay out on Romney as well.

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7 comments

Wed, 2012-11-07 01:15 — Posh Tosh (not verified)

They are the Ryanair of betting Will do anything for a freebie spread.

Wed, 2012-11-07 01:13 — Posh Tosh (not verified)

I never backed poliicians with betting people that supported the IRA.

Wed, 2012-11-07 01:14 — Posh Tosh (not verified)

'politicians'

Tue, 2012-11-06 12:33 — Happy Punter! (not verified)

I agree with the previous poster, their site clearly states 'we currently cannot accept customers fro m the USA' (https://content.paddypower.com/registration) I'd mimagine that is in line with US gambling laws, so there's no way this can actually influence the outcome of the election, it's merely another PR stunt which has worked a treat on this side of the Atlantic, it must be said.

Mon, 2012-11-05 17:36 — Pollymolly (not verified)

The good bookmakers have it figured that they never lose.

Mon, 2012-11-05 14:52 — K Rodgers (not verified)

Conspiracy theory: This as a tool being used to discourage Obama voters from voting.

$650k is a drop in the ocean when you consider that each side has already spent more than 1000 times that amount (cite: elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance)

I would be interested to know what political affiliations Paddy Power has.

Tue, 2012-11-06 00:26 — Irish_Anon (not verified)

Paddy Power only operates in Ireland - what does it have to gain by Obama losing now?

They have a large and colourful history of publicity stunts. These stunts have become a part of Irish pop culture. This is simply another in a long line.

Obama is more popular than Romney by a very large margin here - I imagine the bookmakers follow much the same opinion.