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Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Cameron is paying the price for grievous lapse of judgment (Daily Telegraph)

After Rupert Murdoch and Maria Miller errors, Downing Street needs shaking up if the Prime Minister’s credibility with voters is to be restored, says Peter Oborne. 

2. After Maria Miller, the good news is that MPs can change (Guardian)

The culture secretary's thoroughly modern departure will prompt reform, although mistrust in politics still presents a wider problem, writes Martin Kettle. 

3. The first of Thatcher’s children has arrived (Times)

Maria Miller’s resignation will soon be forgotten, writes Tim Montgomerie. But her replacement could make a lasting impression on politics.

4. Rising inequality is Asia’s main challenge (Financial Times)

Much of the benefit of economic growth goes to those who were already better off, writes David Pilling. 

5. Orwell would loathe this leftie gobbledegook (Times)

The vacuous advice recently offered to Ed Miliband is indicative of the lack of thinking at the heart of the left, says David Aaronovitch. 

6. Mess and muddle as the Scots’ vote looms (Daily Telegraph)

Westminster is making no plans for a Yes vote on Scottish independence, and the Civil Service’s neutrality is under fire, writes Sue Cameron. 

7. Venezuela shows that protest can be a defence of privilege (Guardian)

Street action is now regularly used with western backing to target elected governments in the interests of elites, writes Seumas Milne. 

8. Let's imagine the UK votes to leave the EU. What happens next? (Independent)

It’s a realistic prospect, and now brilliant young diplomat Iain Mansfield has come up with the answer, writes Andreas Whittam Smith. 

9. An Osborne ‘I told you so’ is justified (Financial Times)

The UK chancellor has suffered much abuse – he is only giving what he has received, says Chris Giles.

10. The working classes don't want to be 'hard-working families' (Guardian)

The rhetorical label 'hard-working families' has won Labour no voters and ignores the true nature of social change, says Selina Todd. 

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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