Show Hide image

Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Europe needs reform but Britain belongs at its heart (Financial Times)

An arbitrary timetable for a vote on leaving the EU would undermine the real priorities, writes Ed Miliband.

2. Bob Crow was a daily reminder that workers can win (Guardian)

 The RMT leader was a hero because he was authentic, and had no other master than those who elected him, says George Galloway. His death leaves a huge gap.

3. The world has stopped listening to Hague (Times)

The Foreign Secretary should have resigned when MPs rejected his Syrian policy, says Roger Boyes.

4. Bob Crow leaves behind a union movement fighting for survival (Daily Telegraph)

Politicians of left and right are desperate to colonise working people and their communities, writes Mary Riddell. 

5. The spectre of eurozone deflation (Financial Times)

The ECB is failing, writes Martin Wolf. The aim must be to raise inflation, particularly in surplus countries.

6. Bob Crow: an unlikely capitalist (Daily Telegraph)

The RMT leader espoused socialism but did not subscribe to the new left’s snooty disdain for materialism, says a Telegraph editorial. 

7. After Yalta, we can’t betray Ukraine yet again (Times)

The people are crying out for freedom, writes Daniel Finkelstein. We have a duty to respond to their plea, not be cowed by Putin’s aggression.

8. UKIP funding is only an issue because the Establishment is running scared (Independent)

Yet more laughable is the idea our HQ is staffed by weirdos who spend all day in the pub, writes Nigel Farage. 

9. Lie detectors are a hocus-pocus tool for our distrusting state (Guardian)

Buying voice risk analysis tools to root out benefit fraud conceals a darker purpose: to undermine claimants' credibility, says Zoe Williams.

10. As next week’s Budget approaches, ignore anything worth less than £5bn – it’s economically irrelevant (Independent)

Politicians think voters have no idea of the numbers and will react with emotion, writes Hamish McRae.

Photo: Getty Images
Show Hide image

I'm far from convinced by Cameron's plans for Syria

The Prime Minister has a plan for when the bombs drop. But what about after?

In the House of Commons today, the Prime Minister set out a powerful case for Britain to join air strikes against Isil in Syria.  Isil, he argued, poses a direct threat to Britain and its people, and Britain should not be in the business of “outsourcing our security to our allies”. And while he conceded that further airstrikes alone would not be sufficient to beat Isil, he made the case for an “Isil first” strategy – attacking Isil now, while continuing to do what we can diplomatically to help secure a lasting settlement for Syria in which Assad (eventually) plays no part.

I agreed with much of David Cameron’s analysis. And no-one should doubt either the murderous barbarism of Isil in the region, or the barbarism they foment and inspire in others across the world.  But at the end of his lengthy Q&A session with MPs, I remained unconvinced that UK involvement in airstrikes in Syria was the right option. Because the case for action has to be a case for action that has a chance of succeeding.  And David Cameron’s case contained neither a plan for winning the war, nor a plan for winning the peace.

The Prime Minister, along with military experts and analysts across the world, concedes that air strikes alone will not defeat Isil, and that (as in Iraq) ground forces are essential if we want to rid Syria of Isil. But what is the plan to assemble these ground forces so necessary for a successful mission?  David Cameron’s answer today was more a hope than a plan. He referred to “70,000 Syrian opposition fighters - principally the Free Syrian Army (FSA) – with whom we can co-ordinate attacks on Isil”.

But it is an illusion to think that these fighters can provide the ground forces needed to complement aerial bombardment of Isil.  Many commentators have begun to doubt whether the FSA continues to exist as a coherent operational entity over the past few months. Coralling the myriad rebel groups into a disciplined force capable of fighting and occupying Isil territory is a heroic ambition, not a plan. And previous efforts to mobilize the rebels against Isil have been utter failures. Last month the Americans abandoned a $500m programme to train and turn 5,400 rebel fighters into a disciplined force to fight Isil. They succeeded in training just 60 fighters. And there have been incidents of American-trained fighters giving some of their US-provided equipment to the Nusra Front, an affiliate of Al Qaeda.

Why has it proven so hard to co-opt rebel forces in the fight against Isil? Because most of the various rebel groups are fighting a war against Assad, not against Isil.  Syria’s civil war is gruesome and complex, but it is fundamentally a Civil War between Assad’s forces and a variety of opponents of Assad’s regime. It would be a mistake for Britain to base a case for military action against Isil on the hope that thousands of disparate rebel forces can be persuaded to change their enemy – especially when the evidence so far is that they won’t.

This is a plan for military action that, at present, looks highly unlikely to succeed.  But what of the plan for peace? David Cameron today argued for the separation of the immediate task at hand - to strike against Isil in Syria – from the longer-term ambition of achieving a settlement in Syria and removing Assad.  But for Isil to be beaten, the two cannot be separated. Because it is only by making progress in developing a credible and internationally-backed plan for a post-Assad Syria that we will persuade Syrian Sunnis that fighting Isil will not end up helping Assad win the Civil War.  If we want not only to rely on rebel Sunnis to provide ground troops against Isil, but also provide stable governance in Isil-occupied areas when the bombing stops, progress on a settlement to Syria’s Civil War is more not less urgent.  Without it, the reluctance of Syrian Sunnis to think that our fight is their fight will undermine the chances of military efforts to beat Isil and bring basic order to the regions they control. 

This points us towards doubling down on the progress that has already been made in Vienna: working with the USA, France, Syria’s neighbours and the Gulf states, as well as Russia and Iran. We need not just a combined approach to ending the conflict, but the prospect of a post-war Syria that offers a place for those whose cooperation we seek to defeat Isil. No doubt this will strike some as insufficient in the face of the horrors perpetrated by Isil. But I fear that if we want not just to take action against Isil but to defeat them and prevent their return, it offers a better chance of succeeding than David Cameron’s proposal today. 

Stewart Wood is a former Shadow Cabinet minister and adviser to Ed Miliband. He tweets as @StewartWood.