Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Even Labour supporters don’t think that Ed Miliband’s up to it (Daily Telegraph)

The Labour leader is seen as out of his depth, and the Tories can sense a route towards general election victory in 2015, writes Fraser Nelson.

2. A Labour win is still on – if alienated Tories and Lib Dems play ball (Guardian)

Miliband has the prospect of becoming an unpopular leader, by fluke of greater conservative forces split three ways, says Polly Toynbee.

3. Merkel’s stealthy plan for the euro (Financial Times)

The German chancellor grasps that there is more to leadership than rhetoric, writes Philip Stephens.

4. Liberalism triumphs while Lib Dems sink (Times)

Nye Bevan, Roy Jenkins, Keith Joseph and Margaret Thatcher advanced liberalism more than Clegg’s party, says Philip Collins.

5. We’ve let a good financial crisis go to waste (Daily Telegraph)

The financial system remains unchanged – banks are still too big to be allowed to fail, writes Jeremy Warner.

6. Royal Mail sale is vandalism and must be stopped (Guardian)

Privatising Royal Mail will destroy a cherished institution, says Billy Hayes. Labour must commit to renationalise it.

7. So, should you have a flutter on the Royal Mail? (Daily Mail)

The government could be very disappointed if it expects a rush of retail investor interest, writes Alex Brummer. 

8. Nick Clegg can tell his party to hold their nerve (Guardian)

The Lib Dem leader never said it would be easy, but the economic crisis is being resolved, writes Menzies Campbell.

9. Meet Abdulrahim Elmi, a Somaliland Dickens hero who personifies his new nation (Independent)

Educated, successful young Somalis from the diaspora are flocking back to Somaliland to contribute, writes Peter Popham. Now the only thing the country lacks is international recognition.

10. I’m ending this scandal over children’s care (Daily Telegraph)

No longer will the quality, policies and location of care homes be kept a secret, says Michael Gove.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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