Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. The US supreme court thinks racism is dead. It isn't (Guardian)

Judges gutted an act to protect black voters, saying it was out of date – but there are salient illustrations of their folly, writes Gary Younge. 

2. Miliband is taking his cue from loser Kinnock, not winner Blair (Daily Telegraph)

The Labour leader is doomed to fail because he offers nothing that raises a nation’s hopes, writes Boris Johnson.

3. What's killing Labour? A thousand failures to oppose the cuts (Independent)

The party has not so much missed open goals as fled in the opposite direction, says Owen Jones.

4. By the time HS2 arrives, we’ll no longer need it (Times)

The march of communications means we are gambling £40bn on a project that by 2032 will seem prehistoric, writes Tim Montgomerie.

5. The EU vote: this is a blue referendum (Guardian)

Cameron's meddling will deny us all the chance to vote on the European Union, in spite of cross-party support, says John Mills.

6. The Governor will need the Goldilocks touch (Times)

Carney must harness the goodwill on all sides to keep the economy at the right temperature, says John Redwood.

7. Labour and the unions: battle of Falkirk (Guardian)

Candidate selection can be a fraught business in all parties, even when the process is impeccably democratic, notes a Guardian editorial.

8. Press must withdraw from panto stitch-up (Sun)

What seemed like the chance of a lifetime has turned into a blight on Leveson's seemingly unstoppable climb to the pinnacle of his profession, writes Trevor Kavanagh. 

9. Britain’s problems with a veto on Syria go right back to Yalta (Independent)

It was then that the 'big five' were granted such power, writes Robert Fisk.

10. Obama’s Africa trip is too little, too late (Financial Times)

China-Africa trade is now twice the level of US-Africa trade, writes Edward Luce.

Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Scotland's vast deficit remains an obstacle to independence

Though the country's financial position has improved, independence would still risk severe austerity. 

For the SNP, the annual Scottish public spending figures bring good and bad news. The good news, such as it is, is that Scotland's deficit fell by £1.3bn in 2016/17. The bad news is that it remains £13.3bn or 8.3 per cent of GDP – three times the UK figure of 2.4 per cent (£46.2bn) and vastly higher than the white paper's worst case scenario of £5.5bn. 

These figures, it's important to note, include Scotland's geographic share of North Sea oil and gas revenue. The "oil bonus" that the SNP once boasted of has withered since the collapse in commodity prices. Though revenue rose from £56m the previous year to £208m, this remains a fraction of the £8bn recorded in 2011/12. Total public sector revenue was £312 per person below the UK average, while expenditure was £1,437 higher. Though the SNP is playing down the figures as "a snapshot", the white paper unambiguously stated: "GERS [Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland] is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances". 

As before, Nicola Sturgeon has warned of the threat posed by Brexit to the Scottish economy. But the country's black hole means the risks of independence remain immense. As a new state, Scotland would be forced to pay a premium on its debt, resulting in an even greater fiscal gap. Were it to use the pound without permission, with no independent central bank and no lender of last resort, borrowing costs would rise still further. To offset a Greek-style crisis, Scotland would be forced to impose dramatic austerity. 

Sturgeon is undoubtedly right to warn of the risks of Brexit (particularly of the "hard" variety). But for a large number of Scots, this is merely cause to avoid the added turmoil of independence. Though eventual EU membership would benefit Scotland, its UK trade is worth four times as much as that with Europe. 

Of course, for a true nationalist, economics is irrelevant. Independence is a good in itself and sovereignty always trumps prosperity (a point on which Scottish nationalists align with English Brexiteers). But if Scotland is to ever depart the UK, the SNP will need to win over pragmatists, too. In that quest, Scotland's deficit remains a vast obstacle. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.