Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. To emulate Blair, Ed Miliband will have to stop imitating him (Guardian)

Labour's leader is brave and principled – but falls down as a future prime minister in the public projection of personality, says Steve Richards.

2. GDP is a clumsy test of economic health (Financial Times)

The gauge should be supplemented with one that tracks median household incomes, says Richard Lambert.

3. All we can do for Syria now is donate to the relief effort (Guardian)

Politics is blocked – a solution to the cause of the crisis is not likely any time soon, writes Timothy Garton Ash. But we can at least treat the symptoms.

4. Why David Cameron secretly dreads a Tory-only government (Independent)

A small majority would leave the PM dependent on the Commons votes of right-wingers, writes Andrew Grice. 

5. The irrational case for HS2 (Financial Times)

The government lacks clarity of purpose and honesty with the public, writes John McDermott.

6. Two cheers for growth. But we aren't safe yet (Times)

Today’s GDP figures should give us cause for optimism but the economy must still weather four strong winds, says Graeme Leach. 

7. Cameron’s empty gesture could spark a British rebirth (Daily Telegraph)

The EU referendum gives us the chance to re-emerge as a global trading nation, says Peter Oborne.

8. How God and Mammon can coexist (Independent)

The Archbishop’s  proposal for credit unions goes beyond moralising, notes an Independent editorial.

9. Blue-chip firms hacked phones on an industrial scale. So why aren't there dawn raids on them? (Daily Mail)

It would be an outrage if people who have done far worse than the News of the World were let off scot-free, says Stephen Glover. 

10. This English question demands an answer (Daily Telegraph)

More devolution to Scotland will be the final straw for the Union's largest country, writes Sue Cameron.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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