Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. As Labour's iron man, Ed Balls could do the trick (Guardian)

The tough-as-titanium spending plan Ed Balls laid out could clinch an election, says Polly Toynbee. Can Ed Miliband provide matching vision?

2. George Osborne was the future once - now Michael Gove drives the Tories on (Daily Telegraph)

The Chancellor has been supplanted as the party’s most effective political playmaker, writes Benedict Brogan.

3. Talk of recovery in Greece is premature – and all about justifying austerity (Guardian)

Few think Athens could go a day outside the sovereign version of debtor's jail, writes Aditya Chakrabortty.

4. It’s not a register we need to keep politics honest. It’s a free press (Independent)

Despite what Nick Clegg thinks, a statutory regulator of lobbyists would not have prevented Patrick Mercer's own spectacular folly, writes John Rentoul.

5. Obama and Xi must halt a risky rivalry (Financial Times)

The real difficulty is over the Chinese desire to carve out a ‘sphere of influence’ in east Asia, writes Gideon Rachman.

6. Balls uses the ‘d-word’. But it’s just a first step (Times)

The shadow chancellor has acknowledged the deficit, writes Rachel Sylvester. Even so, economic credibility is still a long way off for Labour.

7. Hubris and nemesis, with a Turkish accent (Daily Telegraph)

Recep Erdogan’s style of politics lies at the heart of his problems at home and abroad, says Shashank Joshi. 

8. Politics catches up with age of austerity (Financial Times)

Britain may finally be able to have a strategic conversation about what government is for, says Janan Ganesh.

9. Case of Bradley Manning is not America's finest hour (Independent)

While Manning behaved recklessly, his treatment has been a disgrace, says an Independent editorial. 

10. Here's how Ukip would clean up Westminster's act on lobbying (Guardian)

The Conservatives, Lib Dems and Labour have done little to end sleaze scandals, says Nigel Farage. They're all in hock to lobbyists.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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