Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. I’ll be voting to quit the EU (Times)

David Cameron’s attempts at renegotiation will be inconsequential – we must leave, writes Nigel Lawson.

2. The elite boast of little sleep, but it's those at the bottom who really suffer (Guardian)

Sleep proves how inequality touches even our most intimate lives – just ask those who toil for low pay with inadequate rest, writes Aditya Chakrabortty.

3. David Cameron has two years left to summon up the spirit of 1992 (Daily Telegraph)

Despite the UKIP threat, the signs are growing that the PM can copy John Major’s upset, says Benedict Brogan.

4. Toxic smog smothers the Chinese dream (Financial Times)

Beijing may be ready to act over the country’s appalling pollution, writes Gideon Rachman.

5. Why the politics of envy are keenest among the very rich (Guardian)

Essential public services are cut in order that the wealthy may pay less tax, writes George Monbiot. But even their baubles don't make them happy.

6. Israel should seize the Arab League's offer (Independent)

Wherever the truth lies in Syria, Israel’s intervention has inevitably eclipsed the other potential development in her relations in the Arab world, writes Donald Macintyre.

7. It would be folly for Cameron to ape UKIP (Financial Times)

This is already an exceptionally conservative government, writes Janan Ganesh.

8. If we want more women in British boardrooms, we need to fix childcare and introduce quotas (Independent)

The Nordic countries have better conditions for being either a mum or a female CEO, writes Margareta Pagano.

9. Governments manage change. UKIP fears it (Times)

Anxiety about the modern world is understandable, but people must be helped to adapt, not encouraged to hide, says Rachel Sylvester.

10. Reforming the UN security council: mañana, mañana (Guardian)

After almost 70 years, it suffers from the twin deficits of representativeness and legitimacy, says a Guardian editorial.

Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader. Getty
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Can Jeremy Corbyn win the 2017 general election?

Does the Labour leader have a chance of becoming prime minister?

 

After less than two years as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn is leading the party into a snap general election. This isn’t the first vote of national significance since his election, however, since he was in office during the 2016 EU referendum.

It’s also not his first serious challenge: after the Brexit vote, his MPs voted “no confidence” in him and Owen Smith challenged him for the leadership. Corbyn saw off that threat to his position convincingly, so can he pull out another electoral triumph and become prime minister?

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister? The polls

Since May 2015, the Conservative Party has consistently led in the polls. The latest polls gives Labour ratings in the mid-20s, while the Conservatives are on the mid-40s – numbers which, if borne out at the polls, would give Labour its worst result since 1935.

But should we believe the general election polls? Glen O’Hara, professor of modern and contemporary history at Oxford Brookes University, points out that the polls have been wrong before, and could be overstating Labour’s collapse. However, a 20-point gap is far outside the margin of error. A Corbyn win would be an unprecedented upset.

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister? Electoral record

At the 2016 local elections, Labour did not gain any councils and lost 18 seats and 4% of the vote. James Schneider, the co-founder of Momentum who is now Corbyn’s head of strategic communications, said this showed Labour was on the right trajectory, but it’s a disappointment for an opposition to make no gains. And at the Copeland by-election this February, Labour lost the seat to the Tories – the first government gain in a by-election since 1982.

Can  Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister? The verdict

Jeremy Corbyn’s path to power would be one of the greatest surprises in British politics. But unlikely doesn’t mean impossible. It would take some extraordinary events, but it could happen. Check out the latest odds to see how the markets rate his chances.

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