Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. The Tory party is in agony, but Labour is also leeching support (Daily Telegraph)

If he is to win back public trust, Labour leader Ed Miliband must tell voters what his spending plans entail, says Mary Riddell.

2. The climate sceptics have already won (Financial Times)

The real and present dangers are too uncomfortable to confront, writes Martin Wolf.

3. First, David Cameron should bring his own tax havens to book (Guardian)

Pressing the G8 to get tough on avoidance is hypocrisy while British dependencies like the Caymans still thrive, writes Simon Jenkins.

4. Why I’m ducking out of the Scottish debate (Times

Instinctively I’m sceptical of separation but politically there’s an advantage in Labour-voting Scotland leaving, writes Daniel Finkelstein.

5. George Osborne may not be dead in the water after all. What will Labour do then? (Guardian)

The IMF may today deliver good(ish) news on the economy, writes Gaby Hinsliff. Even a fake recovery would be bad news for the two Eds.

6. Stocks are booming, so beware the bust (Daily Telegraph)

The return of 'animal spirits’ usually points to better times, but it’s more complicated now, writes Jeremy Warner.

7. The ugly truth is a smug Tory elite has sneered at the party faithful for decades (Daily Mail)

Cameron is surrounded by people who sneer at the morals and values of his party's grassroots supporters, writes Simon Heffer.

8. Ed Miliband is staring at an open goal and I know just the pair of strikers to win it for him (Independent)

Darling and Mandy cut unlikely superheroes, writes Matthew Norman. But it's time for Miliband to bring them back. 

9. Cameron is no longer a winner (Financial Times)

Activists who picked the PM in 2005 to end a losing streak now regret their choice, writes Tim Bale.

10. Job security is a thing of the past - so millions need a better welfare system (Guardian)

Flexible labour markets have created a growing 'precariat', who should have the right to a basic standard of living, says Guy Standing.

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Stop pretending an independent Scotland couldn't join the EU

The SNP has a different set of questions to answer. 

"But Spain", is the common response to a discussion of whether, by voting for independence, Scotland could effectively reverse Brexit. "Disaster for Sturgeon as Spain BACKS May over plans to block Scottish independence vote," declared the Brexiteer's favourite, The Express, this month. Spain, according to this narrative, would unilaterally puncture the SNP's bubble by vetoing readmission to the EU. An independent Scotland would be cast adrift into the North Sea.

I just don't buy it. I have put this question to everyone from former EU member state ambassadors to the former World Trade Organisation head and the answer has been the same: "It can be managed." 

There is also a crucial difference between Spain vetoing Scotland entering the EU, and considering its application on its own merit. Spain is indeed nervous about encouraging Catalonian separatists. But read between the lines. Spain's position on Scotland has so far been to say it would have to exit the EU, become independent and reapply. 

Last time I checked, that's not a veto. And from an EU perspective, this isn't as arduous as it might sound. Scotland's regulations would be in line with EU regulations. It would not upset the balance of power, nor fuel an identity crisis, in the way that Turkey's application did. Spain could justify acquiesence on the basis that the circumstances were extraordinary. And for a club struggling to hold together, an eager defector from the renegade Brexit Britain would be a PR coup. 

Where it is far more arduous is for the Scottish National Party, and the independence movement. As I've written before, roughly a third of SNP voters also voted Leave. Apart from the second-glass-of-wine question of whether quitting one union to join another really counts as independence, Scotland's fishing industry has concrete concerns about the EU. SNP MP Joanna Cherry has observed that it is "no secret" that many Leave voters worked in fishing. 

Then there are the questions all but the most diehard Remain voters will want answered. Would Scotland take the Euro? Would a land border with England be an acceptable sacrifice? Would an independent Scotland in the EU push for reforms at Brussels, or slavishly follow bureacracy's lead? The terms of EU membership for an independent Scotland may look quite different from those enjoyed by the UK.

Rather than continuing to shoot down the idea that an independent Scotland could join the EU - a club happy to accept other small countries like Ireland, Austria and Malta - opponents of the Scottish independence movement should be instead asking these questions. They are far harder to answer. 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.