Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. The Tory party is in agony, but Labour is also leeching support (Daily Telegraph)

If he is to win back public trust, Labour leader Ed Miliband must tell voters what his spending plans entail, says Mary Riddell.

2. The climate sceptics have already won (Financial Times)

The real and present dangers are too uncomfortable to confront, writes Martin Wolf.

3. First, David Cameron should bring his own tax havens to book (Guardian)

Pressing the G8 to get tough on avoidance is hypocrisy while British dependencies like the Caymans still thrive, writes Simon Jenkins.

4. Why I’m ducking out of the Scottish debate (Times

Instinctively I’m sceptical of separation but politically there’s an advantage in Labour-voting Scotland leaving, writes Daniel Finkelstein.

5. George Osborne may not be dead in the water after all. What will Labour do then? (Guardian)

The IMF may today deliver good(ish) news on the economy, writes Gaby Hinsliff. Even a fake recovery would be bad news for the two Eds.

6. Stocks are booming, so beware the bust (Daily Telegraph)

The return of 'animal spirits’ usually points to better times, but it’s more complicated now, writes Jeremy Warner.

7. The ugly truth is a smug Tory elite has sneered at the party faithful for decades (Daily Mail)

Cameron is surrounded by people who sneer at the morals and values of his party's grassroots supporters, writes Simon Heffer.

8. Ed Miliband is staring at an open goal and I know just the pair of strikers to win it for him (Independent)

Darling and Mandy cut unlikely superheroes, writes Matthew Norman. But it's time for Miliband to bring them back. 

9. Cameron is no longer a winner (Financial Times)

Activists who picked the PM in 2005 to end a losing streak now regret their choice, writes Tim Bale.

10. Job security is a thing of the past - so millions need a better welfare system (Guardian)

Flexible labour markets have created a growing 'precariat', who should have the right to a basic standard of living, says Guy Standing.

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The Fire Brigades Union reaffiliates to Labour - what does it mean?

Any union rejoining Labour will be welcomed by most in the party - but the impact on the party's internal politics will be smaller than you think.

The Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has voted to reaffiliate to the Labour party, in what is seen as a boost to Jeremy Corbyn. What does it mean for Labour’s internal politics?

Firstly, technically, the FBU has never affliated before as they are notionally part of the civil service - however, following the firefighters' strike in 2004, they decisively broke with Labour.

The main impact will be felt on the floor of Labour party conference. Although the FBU’s membership – at around 38,000 – is too small to have a material effect on the outcome of votes themselves, it will change the tenor of the motions put before party conference.

The FBU’s leadership is not only to the left of most unions in the Trades Union Congress (TUC), it is more inclined to bring motions relating to foreign affairs than other unions with similar politics (it is more internationalist in focus than, say, the PCS, another union that may affiliate due to Corbyn’s leadership). Motions on Israel/Palestine, the nuclear deterrent, and other issues, will find more support from FBU delegates than it has from other affiliated trade unions.

In terms of the balance of power between the affiliated unions themselves, the FBU’s re-entry into Labour politics is unlikely to be much of a gamechanger. Trade union positions, elected by trade union delegates at conference, are unlikely to be moved leftwards by the reaffiliation of the FBU. Unite, the GMB, Unison and Usdaw are all large enough to all-but-guarantee themselves a seat around the NEC. Community, a small centrist union, has already lost its place on the NEC in favour of the bakers’ union, which is more aligned to Tom Watson than Jeremy Corbyn.

Matt Wrack, the FBU’s General Secretary, will be a genuine ally to Corbyn and John McDonnell. Len McCluskey and Dave Prentis were both bounced into endorsing Corbyn by their executives and did so less than wholeheartedly. Tim Roache, the newly-elected General Secretary of the GMB, has publicly supported Corbyn but is seen as a more moderate voice at the TUC. Only Dave Ward of the Communication Workers’ Union, who lent staff and resources to both Corbyn’s campaign team and to the parliamentary staff of Corbyn and McDonnell, is truly on side.

The impact of reaffiliation may be felt more keenly in local parties. The FBU’s membership looks small in real terms compared Unite and Unison have memberships of over a million, while the GMB and Usdaw are around the half-a-million mark, but is much more impressive when you consider that there are just 48,000 firefighters in Britain. This may make them more likely to participate in internal elections than other affiliated trade unionists, just 60,000 of whom voted in the Labour leadership election in 2015. However, it is worth noting that it is statistically unlikely most firefighters are Corbynites - those that are will mostly have already joined themselves. The affiliation, while a morale boost for many in the Labour party, is unlikely to prove as significant to the direction of the party as the outcome of Unison’s general secretary election or the struggle for power at the top of Unite in 2018. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.