Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Why the world faces climate chaos (Financial Times)

We will watch the rise in greenhouse gases until it is too late to do anything about it, writes Martin Wolf.

2. Will Ed Miliband be the Doctor Who of politics? (Daily Telegraph)

Labour must decide its policy on welfare soon or be forced to dance to the Chancellor’s tune, says Mary Riddell.

3. A Tory-led Europe exit would unleash a carnival of reaction (Guardian)

The nationalist right has long set the agenda, writes Seumas Milne. Labour should back a referendum and make the progressive case.

4. Which part of your manifesto is for real? (Times)

Politicians will be pressed to say which of their promises are non-negotiable in the event of another coalition, writes Daniel Finkelstein.

5. Cameron and his party conspire to create a European shambles (Daily Telegraph)

The Prime Minister’s concessions over the EU referendum have eroded his authority, says Iain Martin.

6. Data geeks are going to change the way we live (Times)

Clever information will cut crime, reduce surgery costs and create billions of new wealth, says Stephan Shakespeare.

7. The UK could reshape the EU if it would only try (Financial Times)

Political leaders must show they want and expect to stay in the EU, writes Charles Grant.

8. This rebellion is Cameron's Maastricht. He should have seen it coming (Guardian)

Every Tory leader should expect a revolt over Europe, writes Melissa Kite. But this time the rebels' anger goes much deeper.

9. Afghan exit - or is it a very long goodbye? (Daily Mail)

The US appetite for interference on a global scale continues to unsettle the world, writes Andrew Alexander.

10. The awful prevalence of grooming gangs (Independent)

Such crimes would be distressing enough in isolation, says an Independent editorial. What is worse is that the authorities could have done something about them so much earlier.

Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.