Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. For all their rage, the Tories know Qatada is going nowhere fast (Independent)

The dialogue going on in the party’s brain is also a dialogue with the electorate, writes John Rentoul.

2. Ukip has thrown British politics into the most marvellous chaos (Daily Telegraph)

Nigel Farage's party is a problem for David Cameron – but he should avoid a lurch to the right, says Peter Oborne.

3. Xi needs to prove he can deliver (Financial Times)

Even if the leader does embrace an economic overhaul, don’t expect political reform to follow, writes David Pilling.

4. Abu Qatada: holding the line on law (Guardian)

Lib Dem ministers should be congratulated for ensuring that the coalition does not embrace deliberate lawlessness, says a Guardian editorial. 

5. Google's tiny tax bill shows how greedy and ruthless it really is (Daily Mail)

Google is a gigantic parasite that makes a fortune from exploiting the creativity and entrepreneurship of others, argues Luke Johnson. 

6. This disability ruling reveals new depths of political dishonesty (Guardian)

Nobody said, in any of the parties' manifestos, that they would claw money back from the severely disabled, writes Zoe Williams.

7. Reheating Thatcherism won’t save Cameron (Times

Conservatives should look to Heseltine for a sensible — and vote-winning — attitude to the role of government, says Steve Richards.

8. We glimpse in Syria the ghost of wars to come (Guardian)

In the Balkans, outsiders stepped in to finally halt the misery, writes Timothy Garton Ash. But this is a different kind of conflict.

9. The age of austerity is over. Why? It doesn’t work (Independent)

If ever George Osborne wanted an excuse to embrace Plan B this is the moment, says Andreas Whittam Smith.

10. Let’s make more leg room at the Cabinet table (Daily Telegraph)

The growing numbers of ministers and hangers-on crowding into No 10 are hardly conducive to good government, says Sue Cameron.

How Jim Murphy's mistake cost Labour - and helped make Ruth Davidson

Scottish Labour's former leader's great mistake was to run away from Labour's Scottish referendum, not on it.

The strange revival of Conservative Scotland? Another poll from north of the border, this time from the Times and YouGov, shows the Tories experiencing a revival in Scotland, up to 28 per cent of the vote, enough to net seven extra seats from the SNP.

Adding to the Nationalists’ misery, according to the same poll, they would lose East Dunbartonshire to the Liberal Democrats, reducing their strength in the Commons to a still-formidable 47 seats.

It could be worse than the polls suggest, however. In the elections to the Scottish Parliament last year, parties which backed a No vote in the referendum did better in the first-past-the-post seats than the polls would have suggested – thanks to tactical voting by No voters, who backed whichever party had the best chance of beating the SNP.

The strategic insight of Ruth Davidson, the Conservative leader in Scotland, was to to recast her party as the loudest defender of the Union between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. She has absorbed large chunks of that vote from the Liberal Democrats and Labour, but, paradoxically, at the Holyrood elections at least, the “Unionist coalition” she assembled helped those parties even though it cost the vote share.

The big thing to watch is not just where the parties of the Union make gains, but where they successfully form strong second-places against whoever the strongest pro-Union party is.

Davidson’s popularity and eye for a good photo opportunity – which came first is an interesting question – mean that the natural benefactor in most places will likely be the Tories.

But it could have been very different. The first politician to hit successfully upon the “last defender of the Union” routine was Ian Murray, the last Labour MP in Scotland, who squeezed both the  Liberal Democrat and Conservative vote in his seat of Edinburgh South.

His then-leader in Scotland, Jim Murphy, had a different idea. He fought the election in 2015 to the SNP’s left, with the slogan of “Whether you’re Yes, or No, the Tories have got to go”.  There were a couple of problems with that approach, as one  former staffer put it: “Firstly, the SNP weren’t going to put the Tories in, and everyone knew it. Secondly, no-one but us wanted to move on [from the referendum]”.

Then again under different leadership, this time under Kezia Dugdale, Scottish Labour once again fought a campaign explicitly to the left of the SNP, promising to increase taxation to blunt cuts devolved from Westminster, and an agnostic position on the referendum. Dugdale said she’d be open to voting to leave the United Kingdom if Britain left the European Union. Senior Scottish Labour figures flirted with the idea that the party might be neutral in a forthcoming election. Once again, the party tried to move on – but no-one else wanted to move on.

How different things might be if instead of running away from their referendum campaign, Jim Murphy had run towards it in 2015. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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