Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. For all their rage, the Tories know Qatada is going nowhere fast (Independent)

The dialogue going on in the party’s brain is also a dialogue with the electorate, writes John Rentoul.

2. Ukip has thrown British politics into the most marvellous chaos (Daily Telegraph)

Nigel Farage's party is a problem for David Cameron – but he should avoid a lurch to the right, says Peter Oborne.

3. Xi needs to prove he can deliver (Financial Times)

Even if the leader does embrace an economic overhaul, don’t expect political reform to follow, writes David Pilling.

4. Abu Qatada: holding the line on law (Guardian)

Lib Dem ministers should be congratulated for ensuring that the coalition does not embrace deliberate lawlessness, says a Guardian editorial. 

5. Google's tiny tax bill shows how greedy and ruthless it really is (Daily Mail)

Google is a gigantic parasite that makes a fortune from exploiting the creativity and entrepreneurship of others, argues Luke Johnson. 

6. This disability ruling reveals new depths of political dishonesty (Guardian)

Nobody said, in any of the parties' manifestos, that they would claw money back from the severely disabled, writes Zoe Williams.

7. Reheating Thatcherism won’t save Cameron (Times

Conservatives should look to Heseltine for a sensible — and vote-winning — attitude to the role of government, says Steve Richards.

8. We glimpse in Syria the ghost of wars to come (Guardian)

In the Balkans, outsiders stepped in to finally halt the misery, writes Timothy Garton Ash. But this is a different kind of conflict.

9. The age of austerity is over. Why? It doesn’t work (Independent)

If ever George Osborne wanted an excuse to embrace Plan B this is the moment, says Andreas Whittam Smith.

10. Let’s make more leg room at the Cabinet table (Daily Telegraph)

The growing numbers of ministers and hangers-on crowding into No 10 are hardly conducive to good government, says Sue Cameron.

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Why are boundary changes bad for Labour?

New boundaries, a smaller House of Commons and the shift to individual electoral registration all tilt the electoral battlefield further towards the Conservatives. Why?

The government has confirmed it will push ahead with plans to reduce the House of Commons to 600 seats from 650.  Why is that such bad news for the Labour Party? 

The damage is twofold. The switch to individual electoral registration will hurt Labour more than its rivals. . Constituency boundaries in Britain are drawn on registered electors, not by population - the average seat has around 70,000 voters but a population of 90,000, although there are significant variations within that. On the whole, at present, Labour MPs tend to have seats with fewer voters than their Conservative counterparts. These changes were halted by the Liberal Democrats in the coalition years but are now back on course.

The new, 600-member constituencies will all but eliminate those variations on mainland Britain, although the Isle of Wight, and the Scottish island constituencies will remain special cases. The net effect will be to reduce the number of Labour seats - and to make the remaining seats more marginal. (Of the 50 seats that would have been eradicated had the 2013 review taken place, 35 were held by Labour, including deputy leader Tom Watson's seat of West Bromwich East.)

Why will Labour seats become more marginal? For the most part, as seats expand, they will take on increasing numbers of suburban and rural voters, who tend to vote Conservative. The city of Leicester is a good example: currently the city sends three Labour MPs to Westminster, each with large majorities. Under boundary changes, all three could become more marginal as they take on more wards from the surrounding county. Liz Kendall's Leicester West seat is likely to have a particularly large influx of Tory voters, turning the seat - a Labour stronghold since 1945 - into a marginal. 

The pattern is fairly consistent throughout the United Kingdom - Labour safe seats either vanishing or becoming marginal or even Tory seats. On Merseyside, three seats - Frank Field's Birkenhead, a Labour seat since 1950, and two marginal Labour held seats, Wirral South and Wirral West - will become two: a safe Labour seat, and a safe Conservative seat on the Wirral. Lillian Greenwood, the Shadow Transport Secretary, would see her Nottingham seat take more of the Nottinghamshire countryside, becoming a Conservative-held marginal. 

The traffic - at least in the 2013 review - was not entirely one-way. Jane Ellison, the Tory MP for Battersea, would find herself fighting a seat with a notional Labour majority of just under 3,000, as opposed to her current majority of close to 8,000. 

But the net effect of the boundary review and the shrinking of the size of the House of Commons would be to the advantage of the Conservatives. If the 2015 election had been held using the 2013 boundaries, the Tories would have a majority of 22 – and Labour would have just 216 seats against 232 now.

It may be, however, that Labour dodges a bullet – because while the boundary changes would have given the Conservatives a bigger majority, they would have significantly fewer MPs – down to 311 from 330, a loss of 19 members of Parliament. Although the whips are attempting to steady the nerves of backbenchers about the potential loss of their seats, that the number of Conservative MPs who face involuntary retirement due to boundary changes is bigger than the party’s parliamentary majority may force a U-Turn.

That said, Labour’s relatively weak electoral showing may calm jittery Tory MPs. Two months into Ed Miliband’s leadership, Labour averaged 39 per cent in the polls. They got 31 per cent of the vote in 2015. Two months into Tony Blair’s leadership, Labour were on 53 per cent of the vote. They got 43 per cent of the vote. A month and a half into Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, Labour is on 31 per cent of the vote.  A Blair-style drop of ten points would see the Tories net 388 seats under the new boundaries, with Labour on 131. A smaller Miliband-style drop would give the Conservatives 364, and leave Labour with 153 MPs.  

On Labour’s current trajectory, Tory MPs who lose out due to boundary changes may feel comfortable in their chances of picking up a seat elsewhere. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog. He usually writes about politics.