Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. For all their rage, the Tories know Qatada is going nowhere fast (Independent)

The dialogue going on in the party’s brain is also a dialogue with the electorate, writes John Rentoul.

2. Ukip has thrown British politics into the most marvellous chaos (Daily Telegraph)

Nigel Farage's party is a problem for David Cameron – but he should avoid a lurch to the right, says Peter Oborne.

3. Xi needs to prove he can deliver (Financial Times)

Even if the leader does embrace an economic overhaul, don’t expect political reform to follow, writes David Pilling.

4. Abu Qatada: holding the line on law (Guardian)

Lib Dem ministers should be congratulated for ensuring that the coalition does not embrace deliberate lawlessness, says a Guardian editorial. 

5. Google's tiny tax bill shows how greedy and ruthless it really is (Daily Mail)

Google is a gigantic parasite that makes a fortune from exploiting the creativity and entrepreneurship of others, argues Luke Johnson. 

6. This disability ruling reveals new depths of political dishonesty (Guardian)

Nobody said, in any of the parties' manifestos, that they would claw money back from the severely disabled, writes Zoe Williams.

7. Reheating Thatcherism won’t save Cameron (Times

Conservatives should look to Heseltine for a sensible — and vote-winning — attitude to the role of government, says Steve Richards.

8. We glimpse in Syria the ghost of wars to come (Guardian)

In the Balkans, outsiders stepped in to finally halt the misery, writes Timothy Garton Ash. But this is a different kind of conflict.

9. The age of austerity is over. Why? It doesn’t work (Independent)

If ever George Osborne wanted an excuse to embrace Plan B this is the moment, says Andreas Whittam Smith.

10. Let’s make more leg room at the Cabinet table (Daily Telegraph)

The growing numbers of ministers and hangers-on crowding into No 10 are hardly conducive to good government, says Sue Cameron.

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Forget gaining £350m a week, Brexit would cost the UK £300m a week

Figures from the government's own Office for Budget Responsibility reveal the negative economic impact Brexit would have. 

Even now, there are some who persist in claiming that Boris Johnson's use of the £350m a week figure was accurate. The UK's gross, as opposed to net EU contribution, is precisely this large, they say. Yet this ignores that Britain's annual rebate (which reduced its overall 2016 contribution to £252m a week) is not "returned" by Brussels but, rather, never leaves Britain to begin with. 

Then there is the £4.1bn that the government received from the EU in public funding, and the £1.5bn allocated directly to British organisations. Fine, the Leavers say, the latter could be better managed by the UK after Brexit (with more for the NHS and less for agriculture).

But this entire discussion ignores that EU withdrawal is set to leave the UK with less, rather than more, to spend. As Carl Emmerson, the deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, notes in a letter in today's Times: "The bigger picture is that the forecast health of the public finances was downgraded by £15bn per year - or almost £300m per week - as a direct result of the Brexit vote. Not only will we not regain control of £350m weekly as a result of Brexit, we are likely to make a net fiscal loss from it. Those are the numbers and forecasts which the government has adopted. It is perhaps surprising that members of the government are suggesting rather different figures."

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, to which Emmerson refers, are shown below (the £15bn figure appearing in the 2020/21 column).

Some on the right contend that a blitz of tax cuts and deregulation following Brexit would unleash  higher growth. But aside from the deleterious economic and social consequences that could result, there is, as I noted yesterday, no majority in parliament or in the country for this course. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.